PowerPoint PresentationSlide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10Slide 11Results- Various CountriesSlide 13Various National PatternsSlide 15Forecasting Oil ProductionSlide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Slide 28Slide 29Slide 30Slide 31Slide 32Slide 33China Energy use 1997Slide 35Slide 36Heinberg Chapter 1TakeoverDrawdownComplexity-diminishing returnsComplexityAmerican successSlide 43Slide 44Slide 45Energy Policy PA 395May 28, 2004Gary Flomenhofthttp://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/The “OIL PEAK”Source: Smil (1991)02550751001800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Composition of U.S. Energy UseComposition of U.S. Energy Usewoodanimal feedcoaloilgaselectricityPercent of total energy useWorld GDP and CO2$1$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,000100010501100115012001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850190019502000World GDP Billions US$$250270290310330350370ATMOSPHERIC CO2World GDPCO2 levelEnergy Rate of ReturnEnergy Densities of FuelsFuel Energy Density (Mj/kg)Peats, green wood, grasses 5.0-10.0Crop residues, air-dried wood 12.0-15.0Bituminous coals 18.0-25.0Charcoal, anthracite coals 18.0-32.0Crude oils 40.0-44.00%20%40%60%80%100%1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950FuelDomesticatedAnimalsLaborWork Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation(after Hubbert, 1969)0-5-4 -3-2-1+1+2 +3+4+5Iron inMiddleEastStonehengeBuiltParthenoncompletedPyramidsconstructedMayancultureInquisitionBlackDeath Magellan'sCircumnavigation Steam Engine100200300Trillion kwh per yearHubbert Oil CycleUS Oil ExtractionResults- Various CountriesAlgeria (EUR=26.09 BBO)Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO)Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO)Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)0.000.100.200.300.400.500.601960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040BBOHistoricalProductionPredictedProduction0.00.51.01.52.02.51960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040BBOHistorial ProductionPredictedProduction0.000.020.040.060.080.100.121960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040BBOHistoricalProductionPredictedProduction0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040BBOHistoricalProductionPredictedProductionWorld Oil ExtractionVarious National Patterns United States (EUR = 286 BBO)024681012141980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion Barrels per YearProductionDemandUSA – E.g.. of a net consumerVenezuela – E.g. of a net producerHigh reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenarioVenezuela (EUR = 95.71 BBO)00.511.521980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion barrels per yearProductionDemandVarious National Patterns United Arab Emirates (EUR=80.63 BBO)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.01980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion barrels per yearProductionDemandMexico (EUR = 82.48 BBO)00.511.522.51980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Billion barrels per yearProductionDemandMexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future.U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenarioForecasting Oil Production Source : US DOE (EIA), website. U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000).Peak Production = 2037World Oil ExtractionWorld Oil ExtractionWorld Oil ConsumptionWorld Oil Flows•Julian Simon view: technological Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesyield more resources–““Drowning in oil” Drowning in oil” The EconomistThe Economist, March 6, March 6thth--1212thth 1999, pp. 23-25 1999, pp. 23-25•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilto predict the end of oil–““The End of Cheap Oil” The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific AmericanScientific American, , March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere)Laherrere)Two ViewsTwo ViewsS. GS. Gürcan Gülen, ürcan Gülen, Ph.D.Ph.D.Real Price of Oil since 1869Real Price of Oil since 1869Oil Reserve/Production ratioOil Reserves“Proven” oil reservesNatural Gas ReservesNatural Gas ReservesCoal ReservesHummer H1Sticker price $106,185Current lawEquipment deduction $25,000Total tax deduction* $60,722Bush economic planEquipment deduction $75,000Total tax deduction* $88,722* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation.Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax CreditCars per Thousand PeopleSource:JustAuto.com“Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.”Thomas Gross, US DOEChina Energy use 1997Source: EPAHeinberg Chapter 1How to gain an Energy Subsidy1)Takeover2)Tool Use3)Specialization4)Scope Enlargement5)DrawdownTakeoverBiotic Potential / Competitive exclusionUse / divert: 40% Earth’s terrestrial NPP 25% Total NPPDrawdownDeplete non-renewable stocks:Coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, minerals, etc.Dangers of Drawdown:PollutionClimate changeDepletionComplexity-diminishing returnsComplexityIncreasing costs of:Maintaining organization and controlControlling conquered territoryTaxationAmerican successGreat natural resourcesEnergy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuelsGlobal tradeOther Extinct culturesRapa Nui- (Easter Island)MangaiaMangerevaPitcairnHenderson
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