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15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128 Global Climate Change: Economics, Science and PolicyMaterialsCourse OrganizationInternational Environmental AgreementsObjective & DifficultiesAcronyms: International InstitutionsAcronyms: National GroupingsConvention-Protocol ProcessThe Lure of a Comprehensive Architecture for ClimateFCCC Process to KyotoRole of the Stabilization GoalRegulatory JargonIssues, Players and PositionsKyoto DetailsProblems with KyotoNow, FragmentationPath to Today’s SituationLessons Learned the Hard WayProspects for Achieving the 2008-12 Kyoto TargetsEfforts on Post-2012MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu15.023J / 12.848J / ESD.128J Global Climate Change: Economics, Science, and PolicySpring 2008For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.• Course introduction (again)• Institutional context of the climate issue– Negotiation of a climate regime: the FCCC• The search for a global regime• What beyond the Kyoto protocol?– Analysis and assessment• Historical analogy: the CFC-ozone issue• The IPCC15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128Global Climate Change: Economics, Science and PolicyMaterials• Readings– Packet to purchase, E52 Copy Center ($30)– Hand-outs– Stellar.mit.edu (syllabus, notes, materials)– Material on web (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)– Keep an eye on the news!• Computer needs– “Toy” IGSM in the Sloan Computer Lab– Excel or other worksheet programCourse OrganizationInstitutionsClimate - IClimate - IIInt’n negotiationsEcon - IEcon - II Integration (Toy)Climate - IIIDamage/benefitsHolidayEcon - III Trading/tax systemsClimate - IVHolidayDecision analysisDeciding near-term effort Arctic changeClimate - V Discussion/questionsStudent presentationsBackground/scienceEconomicsEnviro. economicsUncertaintyUncertainty analysisSea level/storms2/112/192/253/33/103/173/263.314/74/214/285/75/144/14MondayWednesday• Whaling Convention• Law of the Sea• Basle Convention (shipment of toxic waste)• Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES)• Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol• Biodiversity Treaty• [Forest Convention]• Framework Convention on Climate ChangeInternational Environmental AgreementsObjective & Difficulties• Need a regime “architecture”: a unifying structure to guide potential agreement– The metaphor– Examples in environment, trade, etc.• Complexities of this commons problem– 20 or so rich AND poor countries matter– Economic as well as environmental issue – Many emissions & land use contribute– Continuity over century and more– Parties are sovereign nations• FCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change• SBSTA Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice (FCCC)• SBI Subsidiary Body on Implementation (FCCC)• AGBM Ad-Hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate• COP Conference of the Parties (FCCC)• MOP Members of the (Kyoto) Protocol• IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• GEF Global Environmental Facility ($$)• WMO World Meteorological Organization• UNEP U.N. Environment ProgramAcronyms: International Institutions• Annex I = OECD + Economies in Transition – OECD = EU + USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavia, Austria (rich nations)– EIT = Econ’s in Transition (Russia, others of former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe)• Annex B Slight variation on Annex I• Annex II OECD, with special responsibilities• Non-Annex I Developing Countries• G-77 & China Coalition of developing nations• AOSIS Alliance of Small Island StatesAcronyms: National Groupings• Negotiation of a general framework– Goals, obligations– Procedures, data reporting– Bureaucracy, funding• Separate protocols (e.g., CFC-ozone problem)– Universal acceptance not essential– Add without re-ratification of underlying treaty• Contrast to conventional treaty (e.g., Law of the Sea)– Universal and inclusive re. issues and participants– Requires consensus on comprehensive packageConvention-Protocol ProcessThe Lure of a Comprehensive Architecture for Climate• A global commons problem– So include all nations from the start• Both rich and poor nations are important– So agree to base regime on “common but differentiated responsibilities”• Many substances contribute to forcing– So include all gases in a common system• Country cost differences will be inefficient– So introduce flexibility mechanismsStructure of InstitutionsUN General AssemblyFramework Convention on Climate ChangeConferenceof PartiesSBISBSTASec’ySubsidiary BodiesWorld BankUNDPGEFUNEP WMOIPCC• Key Features of the FCCC (Rio 1992)– Article 2: GHGs stabilization to avoid “danger”– Article 4: Separate Annex I and Non-Annex IReview of progress– “Aim” to return to 1990 emissions by 2000• COP-1 in 1995 and the “Berlin Mandate”– Targets and timetables for cuts (1990 baseline)– Policies and measures– No discussion of Non-Annex I commitments• The AGBM process to COP-3 (1997 in Kyoto)FCCC Process to Kyoto• FCCC Article 2: The ultimate objective of this Convention . . . is to achieve . . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climate system.•Issues– Does a threshold exist?– Can a level be agreed? Is it needed?– Role of review of “adequacy of commitments”Role of the Stabilization Goal• Sinks—Storage of carbon in forests (and soils)– Article 3.3: new projects since 1990– Article 3.4: pre-existing forests (“do nothing” sinks)• Allowance trading—parties in one Annex B country can buy allocated amounts from another (AAUs)• Supplementarity—restriction on use of purchased allowances to meet the Kyoto target• CDM (Clean Development Mechanism): credits for reductions in Non-Annex I countries (CERs)• JI (Joint Implementation): credits in Annex I (ERUs)• PAMs—Policies and measures• Hot air—allocation larger than forecast emissionsRegulatory JargonComponents of Policy• Targets and timetables– Stringency?– Differentiation?• Policies and measures• Emissions trading– Supplementarity– Russian “hot air”• Land use & forests• Accession of LDCsIssues, Players and PositionsPlayers & Coalitions• European Union• Japan• United States• Can., Aus., N.Z.• Russia (& E. Europe)• G-77 plus China–OPEC–AOSISAnnex BComponents of a Comprehensive ArchitectureUN


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MIT 15 023J - Economics, Science and Policy

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