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TECH PRACTICUMSlide 2Slide 3Slide 4Many predictions made in the past have proved to be dramatically wrong ... ...even when made by experts with impeccable credentials...Famous QuotationsAirplaneTelephone (1)Telephone (2)Computers (in general)Personal computers (1)Personal computers (2)CinemaRadio“Prediction is difficult - especially of the future”Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19TECH PRACTICUMDr. Hugh BlantonENTC 4600Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 2 / 30Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 3 / 30•There has been an alarming increase in the number of things I know nothing about!Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 4 / 30Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 5 / 30Many predictions made in the past have proved to be dramatically wrong ... ...even when made by experts with impeccable credentials... Many predictions made in the past have proved to be dramatically wrong ... ...even when made by experts with impeccable credentials...Famous QuotationsDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 7 / 30AirplaneAirplane“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible”•Lord Kelvin famous physicists, 1897•1903: Wright traveled 37 m•today: booming industryDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 8 / 30Telephone (1)Telephone (1)“Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over wires and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value”•Boston Post editorial, 1865•1896: Bell got the first patent•today: booming industryDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 9 / 30Telephone (2)Telephone (2)“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications”•Western Union (leading telegraph company), an internal memo, 1896•1896: Bell got the first patent •1998: >~750 M telephone lines, or ~13 lines / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 10 / 30Computers (in general)Computers (in general)“ I think there’s a world market for, maybe, 5 computers”•Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943•1998: >~750 M telephone lines, or ~13 lines / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 11 / 30Personal computers (1)Personal computers (1)•I “didn’t see anything useful” in building home computers•Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, rejecting a 1970s proposal for a home computerDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 12 / 30Personal computers (2)Personal computers (2)“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home”•Ken Olsen, Founder & President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977•1998: ~234 M PCs, or ~4 PCs / 100 inhabitants world average (source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1998)Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 13 / 30CinemaCinema“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”•H.M. Warner, famous film maker), 1927•1927: first talking picture•today: booming industryDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 14 / 30RadioRadio“Radio has no future”•Lord Kelvin, famous physicists, 1897•1896: Marconi - 1st transmission at 1.6 km distanceDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 15 / 30 - Storm Petersen, Danish humorist“Prediction is difficult - especially of the future”“Prediction is difficult - especially of the future”Dr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 16 / 30•Every year a number of young people enter the University, each carrying a small portion of knowledge. •These portions are accumulated there during the years of studying. •That is the reason why the University became the center of knowledge.•After Bernard ShawDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 17 / 30•When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong. •Clarke's First LawDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 18 / 30•The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is by venturing a little way past them into the impossible. •Clarke's Second LawDr. Blanton - ENTC 4307 - Introduction 19 / 30•Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. •Clarke's Third Law •Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced. •Gregory Benford's Corollary to Clarke's Third


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ETSU ENTC 4600 - Technical History

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