An Example of Knowledge Representation to a Real ProblemRisk Managementand the Insurance BusinessThe Problem with Insurance Brokering Insurance Brokers interview their clients and determine their insurance needs.• How do they do it?• Accountability? Insurance Companies offer many policies they want brokers to sell.• How do they "advertise" what they have? Process often takes 6 months. Once policies are sold, how are are Claims handled?The Technology Challenge Perform typical broker functions• Intelligence, not just database lookup Knowing what is going on• Real-time status, not a “black box” Justify our decisions• Explanations, not just “trust us” Using the same knowledge to do claimsThe GoRisk Sales ScenarioInfoGatheringUnderwriterClientIdentifiedRisksPoliciesRisk Management ProgramRiskAnalysisPolicySynthesisCoverageDesignCompany InfoRulesRisks CoveragesGoRiskDemoGoRisk Solutions A KR solution to programming intelligent systems A Software Agent solution to programming cooperative behaviorKR: Most Programs Are Ignorant Search for dog, but miss poodles; search for boxer, get dogs and Muhammad Ali No models, taxonomy, recognition, reflection, accountability What little knowledge a program may have is embedded in its codeA user interface is no substitute for knowledgeA Deep KR ModelCompanyProductCompanyOilCompanyBusinessInterruptionRiskexposureEarthquakeRiskdistributionhasemployeePersonproductionmethodRefineryproducesOil Productsexposureagent ofdangersupplierPipelineDistributionChannelagent ofdangermitigatesPolicycosthasinsurerproducesBusinessInterruptionCoveragemitigatesRetailCompanycustomerprofileCoverageCargo LossCoveragePropertyPropertyRiskexposurePhysical DamageCoveragemitigatescarriesLiquidCargoCargoRiskmitigatesCompanyProductCompanyOilCompanyBusinessInterruptionRiskexposureEarthquakeRiskdistributionhasemployeePersonproductionmethodRefineryproducesOil Productsexposureagent ofdangersupplierPipelineDistributionChannelagent ofdangermitigatesPolicycosthasinsurerproducesBusinessInterruptionCoveragemitigatesRetailCompanycustomerprofileCoverageCargo LossCoveragePropertyPropertyRiskexposurePhysical DamageCoveragemitigatescarriesLiquidCargoCargoRiskmitigatesOKCoverageDesignInfoGatheringRiskAnalysisPolicySynthesisGoRisk–Add PolicyUnderwriterCargo PolicyCargo LossLimit: 5MAsset Protect PolicyBusiness Interruption20 DaysPhysical DamageLimit: 10MCargo PolicyCargo LossLimit: 5MAsset Protection PolicyBusiness Interruption20 DaysPhysical DamageLimit: 10MNation OilGoRisk-Add InfoOKCoverageDesignInfoGatheringRiskAnalysisPolicySynthesisSIC: 1234 (oil)Revenue: 100MDistribution: Pipelinein CaliforniaNation OilSIC: 1234 (oil)Revenue: 100MDistribution: California PipelineCompanyProductCompanyOilCompanyBusinessInterruptionRiskexposureEarthquakeRiskdistributionhasemployeePersonproductionmethodRefineryproducesOil Productsexposureagent ofdangersupplierPipelineDistributionChannelagent ofdangermitigatesPolicycosthasinsurerproducesBusinessInterruptionCoveragemitigatesRetailCompanycustomerprofileCoverageCargo LossCoveragePropertyPropertyRiskexposurePhysical DamageCoveragemitigatescarriesLiquidCargoCargoRiskmitigatesAsset Protection PolicyBusiness Interruption20 DaysPhysical DamageLimit: 10MCargo PolicyCargo LossLimit: 5MNation OilGoRisk-Risk AnalysisCoverageDesignInfoGatheringRiskAnalysisPolicySynthesisOKNation OilSIC: 1234 (oil)Revenue: 100MDistribution: California PipelineCompanyProductCompanyOilCompanyBusinessInterruptionRiskexposureEarthquakeRiskdistributionhasemployeePersonproductionmethodRefineryproducesOil Productsexposureagent ofdangersupplierPipelineDistributionChannelagent ofdangermitigatesPolicycosthasinsurerproducesBusinessInterruptionCoveragemitigatesRetailCompanycustomerprofileCoverageCargo LossCoveragePropertyPropertyRiskexposurePhysical DamageCoveragemitigatescarriesLiquidCargoCargoRiskmitigatesAsset Protection PolicyBusiness Interruption20 DaysPhysical DamageLimit: 10MCargo PolicyCargo LossLimit: 5MRisks: With PipelineBusiness InterruptionProperty RiskCargo RiskHas: Pipeline Business Interruption RiskPipeline Property RiskPipeline Cargo RiskRule: Having a pipeline in an earthquake area means a Business Interruption Risk.Rule: Having property means a Property Risk.Rule: Having a distribution channel means a Cargo Risk.Nation OilGoRisk-Policy MatchCoverageDesignInfoGatheringRiskAnalysisPolicySynthesisOKNation OilSIC: 1234 (oil)Revenue: 100MDistribution: California PipelineCompanyProductCompanyOilCompanyBusinessInterruptionRiskexposureEarthquakeRiskdistributionhasemployeePersonproductionmethodRefineryproducesOil Productsexposureagent ofdangersupplierPipelineDistributionChannelagent ofdangermitigatesPolicycosthasinsurerproducesBusinessInterruptionCoveragemitigatesRetailCompanycustomerprofileCoverageCargo LossCoveragePropertyPropertyRiskexposurePhysical DamageCoveragemitigatescarriesLiquidCargoCargoRiskmitigatesAsset Protection PolicyBusiness Interruption20 DaysPhysical DamageLimit: 10MCargo PolicyCargo LossLimit: 5MHas: Pipeline Business Interruption RiskPipeline Property RiskPipeline Cargo RiskAsset Protect. Policy Bus. InterruptionPhysical DamageCargo Policy: Cargo LossNation Oil:z Asset Protection Policy zz Cargo Policy zAccountability:Systems should know what’s going on Inferences can be traced and explained People hate systems that act like black boxes, especially when they misbehaveSophisticated explanations and justifications give users confidenceGoRisk Solutions A KR solution to programming intelligent systems A Software Agent solution to programming cooperative behaviorProgramming is Still an Art Sharable, reusable software: The Holy Grail • Programmers can barely use one another’s code• Independent systems barely interact• Granularity is usually− Too small (too little power), or:− Too big (no way to combine) Design and Build: A flawed methodology• Prototyping enables evolutionary designs• Prototyping requires enlightened managersAgent Methodology:Getting the Granularity Right Independent programs with responsibilities; strategic messages, not tactical messages Think how a house is built—no one is in control, each employee does a job• Architect designs house• Contractor selects subs • Mason lays foundation• Framers, electricians, plumbers doing their thingFlexible, non-hierarchical control;Path to Evolutionary ImplementationAgent Design for Sales
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