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UA POL 231 - Nominations

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1NominationsOverview• Nomination v. general election phase• Direct primary v. presidential nomination• Primary rules & outcomes• Nominations in other countries• History of presidential nominations• 1970s reform of presidential nominations• Presidential nominations today– Rules– Attrition GameElections• Phases of the election– primary election– general electionTwo systems of nominations• House, Senate and most state offices– direct primary • Presidential nomination– presidential primaries– caucuses & state conventions– national convention2Direct primary• Progressive reform (1890s-1910s)• All candidates from one party– Democratic primary– Republican primary• Plurality victory, except:– Southern majority victory– Southern run-off primaryDefining Who Can Vote in a Primary• Closed primaries (14 states and DC)• Semi-open primary (12 states)– Tashjian v. Republican Party of Connecticut (1986)• Open (20 states: 11 declare, 9 private)• Blanket (4 states)– California declared unconstitutional– California Democratic Party v. Jones(2000)Characteristics of Primaries• Almost no other country uses primaries• Primary date varies by states• Low participation levels - 10% to 20%• Are primaries divisive?• Party leader role– endorsements - 8 states– encourage/discourage candidates to runU.S. House 7thDistrictDemocratRaul GrijalvaRepublicanJoseph Sweeney3Comparative Nomination Process• Great Britain Conservative Party• Local party select candidates from list approved by national party organization• To get on list– candidates interviewed and winnowed by national party officials– remaining 1/3rd on waiting list (n=500)Comparative Nomination Process• When opening occurs– Candidates apply to local committee– Local committee interviews and winnows– Select final candidate by majority vote• Strengthens party– Insures nominee agrees with party– Balance ticketHistory of Presidential Nominations• Electoral College• Congressional caucus (1796-1824)• Convention Era I (1832-1900)• Convention Era II (1900-1944)• Convention Era III (1948-1968)• Primary Dominant (1972-today)Nominations by Electoral College• Without parties, no consensus• Elites nominating elites• Quasi-parliamentary system4Nominations by Congressional Caucus (1796-1824)• First used by Democratic-Republicans in 1796 to nominate Jefferson• Follows pattern used in states• Congressional partiesCongressional Caucus• Problems– parties needed to expand beyond Congress– viewed as unrepresentative– viewed as elitist– lack true separation of powers between president and CongressCongressional Caucus• Fell apart as factionalization of Democratic-Republican party• 1824 party nominates 5 candidates• William Crawford by boycotted caucus• By state legislatures: Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, John Calhoun, Henry ClayWm. CrawfordJacksonJ.Q. AdamsCalhoun ClayConvention Era I: 1832-1900• Reform adopted from minor party – Antimason party• More representative• Separation of powers• Authoritative nomination5Republican Convention 1860Convention Era I: 1832-1900• Candidates not campaign for nomination• State party delegation basic unit for constructing winning coalitions• No outside information on candidate popularity• Could use many ballots to decide nomination - dark horses and bandwagonsDark horse and future PresidentJames K. Polk, 18441896 Democratic conventionWilliam Jennings Bryan“Having behind us the producing massesof this nation and the world, supported by thecommercial interests, the laboring interests, and the toilers everywhere, we will answer their demand for a gold standard by saying to them: You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold. ““Cross of Gold” speechConvention Era I: 1832-1900• Adaptations• Short party platforms in 1840• Platforms become more important as slavery issue dominates• Vice presidential nominations not taken seriously until after Civil War6Convention Era II: 1900-1944• First limits on convention autonomy– Norm to renominate president– Growing role for interest groups– First public opinion polls in 1930s, with only 1 or 2 exceptions most popular candidate nominated• 1952 more popular Kefauver lost to Stevenson• 1964 Republican leader unclearEstes KefauverAdlai StevensonConvention Era II: 1900-1944• Limited role for presidential primaries• First used in 1912 divisive– Teddy Roosevelt won 10/12, President Taft renominated, Roosevelt bolts for Bull Moose PartyRepublican Convention 1912President William Howard TaftFormer President Teddy Roosevelt’s arrival in ChicagoConvention Era II: 1900-1944• Limited roll for primaries (continued)• Only handful of states use primaries• Many candidates not run in them7Convention Era III: 1948-1968 • Expanded but still limited role for primaries– Not enough (16 states, 40% of delegates) to win– Contested only by “outsider” candidates• 1948 Harold Stassen & 1952 Estes Kefauver fail• 1952 Dwight Eisenhower win– Primary loss = exit, primary win = ?Harold StassenConvention Era III: 1948-1968• Availability standard– Senator or governor– Large, competitive state– Ideal family – WASP–Male 1948 Democratic ConventionStrom Thurman Speaks at conventionRuns as Dixiecrat wins39 Electoral College votesHubertHumphrey"There are those who say to you-we are rushing this issue of civil rights.I say we are 172 years late. There are those who say -this issue of civil rights is an infringement on states rights. The time has arrived for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of state's rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights." 1960 DemocraticNomination• Insider strategy– Lyndon Johnson - TX– Stuart Symington – MO• Outsider strategy– John Kennedy - MA– Hubert Humphrey - MN81964 Republican Convention• “I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!”Barry Goldwater1968 Democratic Convention• President Lyndon Johnson declares late will not run, Vice President Hubert Humphrey enters race instead• Eugene McCarthy runs in primaries on anti-Vietnam war plank• Robert Kennedy enters after McCarthy, assassinated in June after winning CA1968 Democratic


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