SeDFAM- Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Model




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SeDFAM Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Model Metin C akany ld r m School of Management University of Texas at Dallas Robin Roundy School of Operations Research Cornell University IIE Portland Conference 2003 UTDallas edu Metin 1 Semiconductor Industry Industry Characteristics High Technology Competition leads to Short Product Life Cycles and Frequent Line Width Changes Volatile Demand Fab financing tool prices Business Contribution Quantify Risk and Uncertainty Capacity acquisition Customer service meet market demand Tool utilization UTDallas edu Metin 2 Goals of the Research Forecast Modeling 1 Covariances of product demands substitutes complements 2 Signal deteriorating forecasts 3 Forecast simulation UTDallas edu Metin 3 Demand Modeling A hierarchical model Product families by general functionality i e memory Products by functionality and line width i e memory CMOS 12 Level of detail driven by capacity planning For families with persistent demands Products have transient demands Family demands are often correlated Memory and CPU chips Correlations can often be strong 1 Correlation among the products of the same family e g between memory CMOS8 and memory CMOS10 2 Correlation among the products of different product families e g between memory CMOS10 X86 CMOS10 UTDallas edu Metin 4 Notation p q families e g ASICS X86 tec tec a line width and its successor e g CMOS10 CMOS12 p tec a product e g memory CMOS10 demand forecast made in s for t for a product p tec dp tec s t dps t demand forecast made in s for t for a family p dps t X dp tec s t tec H forecast horizon UTDallas edu Metin 5 Inputs to Forecast Evolution Forecast history for a product p tec Lags 0 t s 2 H UTDallas edu Metin Jan dp tec jan jan dp tec nov jan dp tec jan H jan Sep dp tec sep sep dp tec jul sep dp tec sep H sep Dec dp tec dec dec dp tec oct dec dp tec dec H dec 6 Heath Jackson Framework for Family Demands dpt t dps 1 t dps 1 t s 1 p vs t dps t dps 1 t dps t dpt t s t dpt t dps t p p vs t






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