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SeDFAM- Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Model




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SeDFAM: Semiconductor Demand Forecast Accuracy Model Metin Cakanyldrm School of Management University of Texas at Dallas Robin Roundy School of Operations Research Cornell University IIE Portland Conference 2003 UTDallas.edu/Metin 1 Semiconductor Industry Industry Characteristics  High Technology - Competition leads to Short Product Life Cycles and Frequent Line Width Changes  Volatile Demand  Fab nancing: tool prices Business Contribution: Quantify Risk and Uncertainty  Capacity acquisition { Customer service: meet market demand { Tool utilization UTDallas.edu/Metin 2 Goals of the Research  Forecast Modeling 1. Covariances of product demands; substitutes - complements 2. Signal deteriorating forecasts 3. Forecast simulation UTDallas.edu/Metin 3 Demand Modeling  A hierarchical model: Product families by general functionality, i.e. memory Products by functionality and line width, i.e. memory CMOS 12  Level of detail driven by capacity planning  For families with persistent demands  Products have transient demands  Family demands are often correlated: Memory and CPU chips  Correlations can often be strong 1. Correlation among the products of the same family e.g. between (memory,CMOS8) and (memory,CMOS10) 2. Correlation among the products of di erent product families e.g. between (memory,CMOS10), (X86,CMOS10) UTDallas.edu/Metin 4 Notation  p; q: families (e.g. ASICS, X86)  tec ; tec+: a line width and its successor (e.g. CMOS10, CMOS12)  (p; tec): a product (e.g. (memory, CMOS10))  d p;tec s;t : demand forecast made in s for t for a product (p; tec)  d p s;t : demand forecast made in s for t for a family p d p s;t = X tec d p;tec s;t  H : forecast horizon UTDallas.edu/Metin 5 Inputs to Forecast Evolution Forecast history for a product (p; tec) Lags Jan ..... Sep ..... Dec 0 d p;tec jan;jan ..... dp;tec sep;sep ..... d p;tec dec;dec .. .. ..... ..... ..... ..... t s = 2 d p;tec nov;jan ..... d p;tec jul;sep ..... d p;tec oct;dec .. .. ..... ..... ..... ..... H d p;tec janH;jan ..... dp;tec sepH;sep ..... dp;tec decH;dec UTDallas.edu/Metin 6 Heath-Jackson Framework for Family Demands s-1 d p s1;t s d p s;t t d p t;t d p t;t d p s1;t v p s;t = d p s;t d p s1;t d p t;t d p s;t v p s;t uncorrelated with v p s+1;t Distribution of vps;t depends on t s v p s;t correlated with v q s;r . vs = [v p s;t]: Family forecast update vector at time s UTDallas.edu/Metin 7 SeDFAM Fractional Forecasts: f p;tec s;t : Fraction of demand for family p line width tec or shorter, forecasted from s for t f p;tec s;t = P linewidthtec d p;tec s;t d p s;t Analyzing Fractional Forecasts  Heath-Jackson approach is not directly applicable  Apply a nonlinear transformation mapping Fractional Forecasts to Perceived Ages  Apply Heath-Jackson to Perceived Age Forecasts UTDallas.edu/Metin 8 Computing Perceived Ages from Fractional Forecasts 6 0 R() 1 -  f p;tec s;t  p;tec s;t L Perceived ...





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