Promoting Nuclear Stability in South AsiaAgendaAcknowledgementThe Science, Technology, and Global Security (STGS) Working Group Nuclear weapons a “dangerous place”Build-up of conventional weapons aggravate the situationImpact of introducing missile defense in south AsiaThe China factorSome Indian strategists argue need for missile defenseLittle tradition in the region of independent analysis of defense issuesMotivations for the projectTopics Selected to dateLessons-learned from the US-USSR experienceA stability framework for southern AsiaWeaponization of SpaceProgress to dateLooking forwardPromoting Nuclear Stability in South AsiaSubrata GhoshroyProgram in Science, Technology, and SocietyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MassachusettsBerlin, Germany8 October 20078 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 2Agenda• Acknowledgements• About the Science, Technology, and Global Security Working Group at MIT• Project on Promoting nuclear stability in South Asia–Objectives–Progress– Future8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 3Acknowledgement• Rudolf Adam, President, BAKS• Ambassador Rudiger Ludeking• Goetz Neuneck, Co-organizer • Danielle Mancini from MIT and Jan Stuplfrom IFSH, coordinators• Abdul Hameed Toor and Khalid Banuri in Islamabad• Marvin Miller and Geoff Forden at MIT8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 4The Science, Technology, and Global Security (STGS) Working Group Researchers• Prof. Ted Postol, PI• Geoff Forden• Subrata Ghoshroy• Marvin Miller• John ThomsonAdministration• Danielle Mancini8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 58 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 6Nuclear weapons a “dangerous place”• Kashmir dispute unresolved since 1947 • Internal insurgencies in both India and Pakistan• Border dispute between India and China• Maoist insurgency in Nepal• Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka• Transition to democracy in Pakistan Bangladesh, and Myanmar (Burma)• Resurgence of Taleban in Afghanistan8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 7Build-up of conventional weapons aggravate the situation• India has undertaken a major modernization program– aircraft, missiles, air defense, and submarines–missile defense• Pakistan is also procuring sophisticated systems– Aircraft, missiles, submarines• Indian security calculus not guided by Pakistan alone – the China factor.8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 8In 2004, Indian defense budget was $15 billion and Pakistan’s $3.7 bIndia spends roughly 2.1 percent of the GDP and Pakistan about 4.5%8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 9Impact of introducing missile defense in south Asia• Adds uncertainty and potentially undermines Pakistani nuclear deterrent• Pakistan likely might develop a more sophisticated nuclear force in response– Mobile launchers, including submarine-launched missiles• Deployment of cruise missiles by both sides8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 10The China factor• Chinese modernization influenced by US policy towards Taiwan and also US-Japan security collaboration• Indian strategists believe that their missile defense system cannot counter Chinese missiles• US missile defense program influences China’s strategy and linkages to space weaponization and fissile material production cut-off8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 11Some Indian strategists argue need for missile defense• India has a “no-first-use” policy• Pakistan does not • A “credible minimum deterrent” assumes survivable weapons and hence the need for missile defense• Consequently, some argue that an ABM-like treaty is not appropriate8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 12Little tradition in the region of independent analysis of defense issues• Most scientists knowledgeable about the issues are part of the government• Current discussions outside the government limited to a small group of security analysts –mostly non-scientists - who are close to the defense establishment• Little transparency in decision-making process and relative absence of parliamentary oversight• An embryonic military-industrial complex that is learning fast from their US counterparts8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 13Motivations for the project• Initiate a dialog among Indian and Pakistani scientists and policy analysts– technical and policy analysis of weapon systems to be jointly undertaken by participants• Improve nuclear stability – Accident prevention, shared missile-launch warning• Help bring about an informed debate on the desirability of certain weapon systems– Missile defense, cruise missiles,etc.8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 14Topics Selected to date• Assessing the impact of India’s deployment of a BMD system• A framework for nuclear stability in southern Asia– A shared missile-launch surveillance system• Space security– Opportunities for cooperation– Prevention of weaponization of Space• Impact of the proposed US-India nuclear deal• Energy security and ramifications of increased deployment of nuclear power8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 15Lessons-learned from the US-USSR experience– Role of the scientists in arms control and disarmament – The ABM Treaty– What is and what is not relevant to South Asia?– Avoiding pitfalls– Multi-lateral vs. bilateral (the China factor)– Transparency and verification mechanisms8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 16A stability framework for southern Asia• Applicability of an ABM-like treaty• Utility of the proposed shared missile launch warning system • Possible enhancement of the recently concluded agreement between India and Pakistan on pre-notification of missile flight tests8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 17Weaponization of Space• Topic selected because of – the common ground between Pakistan and India on this issue– Linkage of space weapons to missile defense• Will cover several issues:– The new US Space Policy and military space initiatives– Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani space programs and US concerns – The PAROS initiative8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 18Progress to date• Two successful visits to Pakistan and India in October 2005 and March 2006– Met with the Minister of Defense in India and the Commander of the Strategic Forces in Pakistan– Made a number of presentations in Islamabad and New Delhi– A two-day conference was held in each country:• A Pugawsh conference in Islamabad• A joint conference with IPCS New Delhi8 October 2007 Subrata Ghoshroy 19Looking forward• We are extremely happy to be meeting