Livestock Markets 2003Livestock MarketingWhen to sellSlide 4Slide 5Market Hog CalculatorSlide 7Where to sellFeeder cattle salesFeeder pig salesWhat to sellSlide 12Slide 13Slide 14Value-based Hog MarketingComparing bidsValue-Based Cattle MarketingSlide 18Slide 19Slide 20Comparing BidsSummaryLivestock Markets 2003Billion Per Cap PriceExportlbs lbs $/cwt %Beef 26.2 64.8 84.69 9.6Pork 20.0 51.8 39.45 8.6Broilers 32.7 81.4 62.00 15.1Turkeys 5.7 17.4 62.10 8.5Livestock MarketingWhen to sell•Weight, grade, costsWhat to sell•Live or carcass•Grade, productionWhere to sell•Type of market•LocationWhen to sellClassic production function•MC=MRCosts increase beyond optimal selling weight•Costs are a function of»Genetic potential»Cost of diet»Opportunity costs of future productionWhen to sellMarginal Revenue (Prices)Uncertain about price if you wait to sell (price trends)Function of weight and days on feed•Typically animals increase the portion of fat relative to muscle produced as they get heavier.•There is an optimal weight range»Discounts if too light or too heavy •Optimal degree of “finish”»Different for hogs versus cattle»Both can be too fatWhen to sellOptimal is still MC=MR•MC is increasing at increasing rate and is function of feed prices•MR increases then decreases due to premiums and discounts associated with grades »Is also a function of seasonal price trends that could be higher or lowerMarket Hog CalculatorCurrent hog price ($/cwt) HP $47.95Expected added wt AW 15Cost of added wt ($/lb) AC $0.37Expected final wt FW 260Price discount ($/cwt) PD ($0.75)Expected price change PC $0.00 AW*HP – (AW*AC) – (FW*PD) + (FW*PC)Expected return to selling later ($0.27)Seasonal Price Index for Iowa Fed Cattle and Hogs85%90%95%100%105%110%115%Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.Cattle HogsWhere to sellTerminal markets have declinedAuction markets important when assembly is needed•Feeder cattle and cull cows•Growing interest in fed cattle in fringe areasDirect sales•Fed cattle and hogs•Feeder pigs•Growing in feeder cattle where source verification is importantFeeder cattle salesLive weight sales•Various weight classesAuction is major market•Assembly function importantVideo auctionsDirect tradePremium paid for•Large uniform lots•Certification/verification ??????Feeder pig salesPrice/head or live weight•40-60 pound classes•Weaned pigs (10-12 pounds)Primarily direct trade•Rapidly declining auctions•Health and stress concernsPremiums for•Large uniform, single source•Genetic historyWhat to sellLive weight•One average price for all live pounds•Negotiated price before delivery•Weighing conditions important•Mud, shrink (fill, time, stress)•Was most common for hogs •Still common in large cattle feedlots, less in Iowa•Used for feeder cattle and feeder pigsWhat to sellCarcass weight•One average price for all carcass pounds•Negotiated price before delivery•Dressing percent (also called yield)•Farmer stands risk of trimming and condemnation•Common for fed cattle in MidwestWhat to sellDressing percent•DP = carcass weight / live weight•DP hogs approximately 73-76%•DP cattle approximately 61-64%DP impacted by:•Weighing conditions•ShrinkWhat to sellValue-based marketing•Each carcass evaluated and priced•Premiums and discounts determined ahead of delivery•Base price may be negotiated or come from formula •Carcasses are graded and values assigned•Farmer stands grading risk•Different buyers have different systems•Nearly all hogs•Increasingly popular for fed cattleValue-based Hog MarketingTwo factors impact premiumsCarcass weight and leanness•Fixed premiums (known dollar amount)•Relative premiums (percent adjustment)•Not USDA graded»Packer employee measures»Objective measuresFat-O-Meter, ruler, ultra-soundComparing bidsPrice in appropriate $/cwt A BBid Price (live) $44.50 ---Bid Price (carcass) --- $59.50Lean premium --- +1.25Sort discount --- -.70Dressing percentage 74.5 74.5Adjusted to live 44.50 44.73Transportation -.85 -.35Net farm gate price $43.65 $44.38Value-Based Cattle MarketingValue-Based Cattle MarketingThree factor impact premiums1. Carcass Weights2. Quality Grade Distribution (USDA Grader)Based on marbling, proxy for eating experience3. Yield Grade Distribution (USDA Grader)Based on lean meat yield4. Other specs:Product safety & quality assuranceAcceptable colorYouthfulnessValue-Based Cattle MarketingValue-Based Cattle MarketingCommon Ground for Targets1. Carcass Weights 550 - 950 lbs2. Quality Grade > Se+ or > Ch03. Yield Grade 1’s and 2’sWhere are the Grid Rewards & Discounts?Where are the Grid Rewards & Discounts?Angus America (Excel)Premiums:•Prime: $6 / cwt•Certified Angus: $3 / cwt•Sterling Silver: $3 / cwt•Angus Pride: $.50/cwt•Yield Grade 1: $5 / cwt (Ch & better)•Yield Grade 2: $3 / cwt (Ch & better)Discounts:•Selects, No Rolls, Standards (Mkt Boxed Beef Prior, -$10 off Select, -$30)•Off Grades (-$35)•Yield Grade 4s & 5s (-$15, -$25)•Heavy(950-999), Extra Heavy (1000up), Light (500-550) & Extra Light (500 down) Carcasses (-$15, -$30, -$15, -$35)Quality Yield GradeGrade 1 2 3 4 & 5Prime +$$$$$ +$$$$ +$$$ -$$Choice+ and Choiceo+$$$ +$$$ +$$ -$$Choice-+$$$ +$$ Base -$$$Select -$ -$$ -$$$ -$$$$Standard -$$$$ -$$$$ -$$$$ -$$$$Out Cattle -$$$$$ -$$$$$ -$$$$$ -$$$$$ Carcass Merit Grid and Premium TrendsCarcass Merit Grid and Premium TrendsComparing BidsPrice in appropriate $/cwt A BBase bid price 112.00 111.00Prime 3% --- +6.00Top 2/3 Ch 45% --- +3.50Select 30% --- -8.00Yield 1&2 60% --- +2.50Off weight 3% --- -15.00Transportation -.65 -1.25Net farm gate price 110.35 110.16Bid A is a straight in the meat bid, Bid B is a valued-based bid.SummaryWhen to sell is complicated•Perishable, non-storable•Rising cost and changing valueWhat to sell is complicated•Understanding shrink•Know what is under the hideWhere to sell•Transportation•Buyer programs•Number of