PUBLIC OPINION IN THE SOCIAL MEDIA ERA: TOWARD A NEW UNDERSTANDING OF THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE A Thesis Presented to the Faculty in Communication and Leadership Studies School of Professional Studies Gonzaga University Under the Mentorship of Alexa Dare, Ph.D. Communication and Leadership Studies In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in Communication and Leadership Studies By Daniel Lemin April 2010We the undersigned, certify that we read this thesis and approve it as adequate in scope and quality for the degree Master of Arts. Visiting Examiner Date Faculty Reader Date Faculty Reader Date Faculty Mentor Date Gonzaga University MA Program in Communication and Leadership Studies April 2010ABSTRACT This thesis explores the intersection of a long-standing public opinion theory – the spiral of silence – and the recent explosion in social publishing tools such as Tumblr and Twitter. It uses real-world discussion settings (including face-to-face focus groups and synchronous online discussions) in tandem with a pre-test/post-test methodology to measure opinion shifts on the topic of corn syrup and childhood nutrition/obesity. This research design is based on well-established criticisms challenging that the spiral of silence may not be fully explained by a national climate of opinion on a topic, suggesting that there are other influences on individual beliefs than just popular opinion. This thesis investigates the role of social media on opinion-forming variables, the role of the social publishing platforms themselves on opinion-forming variables and the manifest application of the spiral of silence within these environments. The hypotheses were not supported by the research and did not yield statistically significant variance, but statistically significant patterns emerged that demonstrate the need for further research in this area that builds on the research methodology across a more extended time span.TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION Importance of the Study 1 Statement of the Problem 1 Definition of Terms Used 2 Organization of Remaining Chapters 3 CHAPTER II: REVIEW OF LITERATURE Theoretical Basis 4 The Literature 5 Computer-Mediated Communication and the Spiral of Silence 10 Hypotheses 14 CHAPTER III: SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY Sample 16 Instrumentation 17 Procedure 19 Validity 22 CHAPTER IV: THE STUDY Data Analysis 25 Results 25 Demographics 32 Discussion 32 CHAPTER V: SUMMARIES AND CONCLUSIONS 34 REFERENCES 37 APPENDIX 41Spiral of Silence: Toward a New Understanding 1 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Importance of the Study Social media tools such as Twitter and blogs have made a profound impact on mass media in the United States. In the last year alone, society has been witness to a swell of new blogs and media influencers while traditional media outlets in major cities have suffered cutbacks or outright liquidation (Blankenheim, 2009). This trend will no doubt have a permanent effect on the face of mass media in this country, but as the effects of these changes proliferate one must consider the impact of social media on public opinion and the shaping of an individual’s social decision-making environment. At the same time, longstanding theories about public opinion – such as the spiral of silence – are challenged by this new media environment and the behaviors associated with individual interaction within it. This thesis will explore the impact of these changes on the longstanding spiral of silence theory while providing a fresh perspective on the forming of public and individual opinion in social media environs. Statement of the Problem Social publishing tools consist of a unique communication medium framed in the construct of computer-mediated communication. They include consumer-generated content on sites such as YouTube and Twitter as well as the proliferation of personal and professional blogs. By their very nature, these tools are subject to a profound lack of traditional social context cues (Griffith, 2009), and increase the instances of anonymous activity. This creates a compelling new set of challenges for traditional communication theory and theorists, particularly Noelle-Neumann’s spiral of silence (Noelle-Neumann, 1984). As she put forth in the theory, Noelle-Neumann believed that the process of opinion forming and sharing was based on one’sSpiral of Silence: Toward a New Understanding 2 perceptions of popular opinion, and that perceptions of decreasing support for one’s position led to a reduced likelihood in speaking out about the topic (Noelle-Neumann, 1977).The impact of computer-mediated communication has been applied against the spiral of silence theory in the past (McDevitt, 2003) but the specific impact of social media and citizen journalism on individual opinion-forming has not been tested. Additionally, a detailed understanding of the intersection of the spiral of silence theory with social publishing and social media holds potential for unearthing how that medium influences individual opinion. Based on a review of existing literature, there is a dearth of empirical studies that assess how human behavior on the Internet can drive opinion-forming in the self and others, and how various social media environments impact that behavior. The Spiral of Silence theory has been studied extensively from a variety of perspectives. The theory itself is not without its detractors, although the nature of the criticisms and the recommendations these critical studies make for research in this area actually establish a compelling landscape of research opportunity. This thesis will expand on those criticisms and drive further understanding of the theory by examining it from the new perspective of social publishing. Definition of Terms Used Social Publishing Tools: Internet-based self-publishing platforms that enable all individuals to share and consume content free of editorial and other filters. Examples: Tumblr,