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UCSB ECON 240 - Retail Sales

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$ Retail Sales $BackgroundSlide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7ApproachSlide 9Data AnalysisProbably Affecting VariablesSlide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23SummarySlide 25Slide 26Slide 27The EndAppendix$ Retail Sales $Economics 240ATeam Member: Yi-Ling Liu Luke Panzar Salam Engler Edgar Torres Allyson CadyBackgroundWhatBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhyBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesHowBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesHow–Statistical Methods (i.e. Least Mean Squares, Regression)ApproachLong Term Affected by:ApproachLong Term Affected by:–Personal IncomeData AnalysisPersonal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Long Term11.011.512.012.513.013.513.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0LOG(NOMDISPINCM)LOG(RETAILSALESM)Dependent Variable: LOG(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:35 Sample: 1968:3 1997:2 Included observations: 116 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.573955 0.045557 -12.59858 0.0000 LOG(NOMDISPINCM) 0.893151 0.003121 286.2066 0.0000 R-squared 0.998610 Mean dependent var 12.45025 Adjusted R-squared 0.998598 S.D. dependent var 0.618620 S.E. of regression 0.023163 Akaike info criterion -4.675447 Sum squared resid 0.061163 Schwarz criterion -4.627971 Log likelihood 273.1759 F-statistic 81914.19 Durbin-Watson stat 0.325630 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Probably Affecting VariablesShort Term:Probably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal IncomeProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer ConfidenceProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest RateProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest Rate–S & P CompositeProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest Rate–S & P Composite–Unemployment RateData AnalysisPersonal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Short TermDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:52 Sample(adjusted): 1968:4 1997:2 Included observations: 115 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2124.211 629.0292 3.376966 0.0010 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.060040 0.011549 5.198840 0.0000 R-squared 0.193018 Mean dependent var 4823.609 Adjusted R-squared 0.185877 S.D. dependent var 4220.093 S.E. of regression 3807.739 Akaike info criterion 19.34470 Sum squared resid 1.64E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.39243 Log likelihood -1110.320 F-statistic 27.02794 Durbin-Watson stat 2.237195 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001Data AnalysisLagging Personal Disposable Income (Short Term)Dependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:56 Sample(adjusted): 1969:1 1997:2 Included observations: 114 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1427.638 804.9848 1.773497 0.0789 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.059064 0.011637 5.075566 0.0000 D(NOMDISPINCM(-1)) 0.016709 0.011696 1.428538 0.1559 R-squared 0.204975 Mean dependent var 4846.439 Adjusted R-squared 0.190650 S.D. dependent var 4231.586 S.E. of regression 3806.899 Akaike info criterion 19.35298 Sum squared resid 1.61E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.42499 Log likelihood -1100.120 F-statistic 14.30911 Durbin-Watson stat 2.240408 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003Data AnalysisPersonal Disposable Income, Consumer Confidence, vs.Retail Sales Short TermDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:58 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2578.415 637.6329 4.043730 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.051579 0.011540 4.469405 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 131.9376 36.05752 3.659088 0.0004 R-squared 0.269180 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.255646 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3663.908 Akaike info criterion 19.27710 Sum squared resid 1.45E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.35033 Log likelihood -1066.879 F-statistic 19.88961 Durbin-Watson stat 2.489156 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Data AnalysisAddition of Real Prime RateDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:01 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2523.225 641.1886 3.935231 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.052878 0.011642 4.542087 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 134.8747 36.23942 3.721767 0.0003 D(REALPRIME) -320.1755 357.5827 -0.895389 0.3726 R-squared 0.274615 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.254277 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3667.276 Akaike info criterion 19.28766 Sum squared resid 1.44E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.38530 Log likelihood -1066.465 F-statistic 13.50264 Durbin-Watson stat 2.475944 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Data AnalysisAddition of S & P Composite Dependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:06 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2564.992 622.1614 4.122711 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.051893 0.011261 4.608343 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 111.7882 36.06535 3.099600 0.0025 D(SPCOMRETURN) -82.47764 32.48482 -2.538960 0.0126 R-squared 0.310707 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.291381 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3574.878 Akaike info criterion 19.23662 Sum squared resid 1.37E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.33426 Log likelihood -1063.632


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