$ Retail Sales $BackgroundSlide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7ApproachSlide 9Data AnalysisProbably Affecting VariablesSlide 12Slide 13Slide 14Slide 15Slide 16Slide 17Slide 18Slide 19Slide 20Slide 21Slide 22Slide 23SummarySlide 25Slide 26Slide 27The EndAppendix$ Retail Sales $Economics 240ATeam Member: Yi-Ling Liu Luke Panzar Salam Engler Edgar Torres Allyson CadyBackgroundWhatBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhyBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesHowBackgroundWhat–Effects on Retail Sales from Personal Income, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rate, and othersWhy–Understand some variables that affect Retail SalesHow–Statistical Methods (i.e. Least Mean Squares, Regression)ApproachLong Term Affected by:ApproachLong Term Affected by:–Personal IncomeData AnalysisPersonal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Long Term11.011.512.012.513.013.513.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0LOG(NOMDISPINCM)LOG(RETAILSALESM)Dependent Variable: LOG(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:35 Sample: 1968:3 1997:2 Included observations: 116 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.573955 0.045557 -12.59858 0.0000 LOG(NOMDISPINCM) 0.893151 0.003121 286.2066 0.0000 R-squared 0.998610 Mean dependent var 12.45025 Adjusted R-squared 0.998598 S.D. dependent var 0.618620 S.E. of regression 0.023163 Akaike info criterion -4.675447 Sum squared resid 0.061163 Schwarz criterion -4.627971 Log likelihood 273.1759 F-statistic 81914.19 Durbin-Watson stat 0.325630 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Probably Affecting VariablesShort Term:Probably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal IncomeProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer ConfidenceProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest RateProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest Rate–S & P CompositeProbably Affecting VariablesShort Term:–Personal Income–Consumer Confidence–Interest Rate–S & P Composite–Unemployment RateData AnalysisPersonal Disposable vs. Retail Sales Short TermDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:52 Sample(adjusted): 1968:4 1997:2 Included observations: 115 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2124.211 629.0292 3.376966 0.0010 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.060040 0.011549 5.198840 0.0000 R-squared 0.193018 Mean dependent var 4823.609 Adjusted R-squared 0.185877 S.D. dependent var 4220.093 S.E. of regression 3807.739 Akaike info criterion 19.34470 Sum squared resid 1.64E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.39243 Log likelihood -1110.320 F-statistic 27.02794 Durbin-Watson stat 2.237195 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001Data AnalysisLagging Personal Disposable Income (Short Term)Dependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:56 Sample(adjusted): 1969:1 1997:2 Included observations: 114 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1427.638 804.9848 1.773497 0.0789 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.059064 0.011637 5.075566 0.0000 D(NOMDISPINCM(-1)) 0.016709 0.011696 1.428538 0.1559 R-squared 0.204975 Mean dependent var 4846.439 Adjusted R-squared 0.190650 S.D. dependent var 4231.586 S.E. of regression 3806.899 Akaike info criterion 19.35298 Sum squared resid 1.61E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.42499 Log likelihood -1100.120 F-statistic 14.30911 Durbin-Watson stat 2.240408 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003Data AnalysisPersonal Disposable Income, Consumer Confidence, vs.Retail Sales Short TermDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 10:58 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2578.415 637.6329 4.043730 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.051579 0.011540 4.469405 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 131.9376 36.05752 3.659088 0.0004 R-squared 0.269180 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.255646 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3663.908 Akaike info criterion 19.27710 Sum squared resid 1.45E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.35033 Log likelihood -1066.879 F-statistic 19.88961 Durbin-Watson stat 2.489156 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Data AnalysisAddition of Real Prime RateDependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:01 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2523.225 641.1886 3.935231 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.052878 0.011642 4.542087 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 134.8747 36.23942 3.721767 0.0003 D(REALPRIME) -320.1755 357.5827 -0.895389 0.3726 R-squared 0.274615 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.254277 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3667.276 Akaike info criterion 19.28766 Sum squared resid 1.44E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.38530 Log likelihood -1066.465 F-statistic 13.50264 Durbin-Watson stat 2.475944 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000Data AnalysisAddition of S & P Composite Dependent Variable: D(RETAILSALESM) Method: Least Squares Date: 11/26/02 Time: 11:06 Sample(adjusted): 1969:4 1997:2 Included observations: 111 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2564.992 622.1614 4.122711 0.0001 D(NOMDISPINCM) 0.051893 0.011261 4.608343 0.0000 D(CONSCONF) 111.7882 36.06535 3.099600 0.0025 D(SPCOMRETURN) -82.47764 32.48482 -2.538960 0.0126 R-squared 0.310707 Mean dependent var 4940.847 Adjusted R-squared 0.291381 S.D. dependent var 4246.733 S.E. of regression 3574.878 Akaike info criterion 19.23662 Sum squared resid 1.37E+09 Schwarz criterion 19.33426 Log likelihood -1063.632
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