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Empirical Analysis of Airport Capacity Enhancement Impacts

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Empirical Analysis of Airport Capacity Enhancement Impacts:A Case Study of DFW AirportMark HansenInstitute of Transportation StudiesNational Center of Excellence in Aviation Operations ResearchUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeley, CaliforniaPh: 510-642-2880Fax: [email protected] TsaoInstitute of Transportation StudiesNational Center of Excellence in Aviation Operations ResearchUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeley, CaliforniaPh: 510-643-5635Fax: [email protected] Alex HuangInstitute of Transportation StudiesNational Center of Excellence in Aviation Operations ResearchUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeley, CaliforniaPh: 510-642-5896Fax: [email protected] WeiInstitute of Transportation StudiesNational Center of Excellence in Aviation Operations ResearchUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeley, CaliforniaPh: 510-643-2975Fax: [email protected], 1998Word Count Abstract: 250Word Count Text: 46792 Tables: 5008 Figures: 2000 7179ABSTRACTThis paper assesses the impact of a major expansion in airfield capacity at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) airport. In October 1996, a new runway was commissioned, and theairspace was entirely reconfigured. Our study of the benefits of the expansion isretrospective and based on empirical data and hence provides a useful check onpredictive and model-based studies. Also, it pays considerable attention to adaptationsmade by airlines. Central questions in our research are whether operational impacts andairline adaptations can be observed in the DFW case, and how to define metrics that maycapture them.We developed several new metrics and used them, in conjunction with existingmetrics, to measure the impacts and adaptations. We found that average effective traveltime from the scheduled departure time to the actual arrival at DFW and hence theaverage delay did decrease after the capacity expansion, but only under inclementweather conditions. However, no significant reductions in delay against schedule wereobserved. The daily maximum rate of operations of American Airlines, the dominantcarrier at DFW, increased. Also, major airlines operating at DFW collectively scheduledtheir daily operations with a higher concentration (across the whole day) than the earlierlevels in 1996. Average passenger transfer time of American s flights at DFW improvedbut the improvement did not last long. Overall, it appears that the impacts andadaptations were more modest than expected, perhaps as a result of confounding events.The metrics and methodology are applicable to any such study about any other airport.KEY WORDS: Airports, Airport Capacity, Airport Capacity Enhancement, FlightDelay, Airline Scheduling, Dallas-Forth Worth AirportHansen, Tsao, Huang, and Wei11. INTRODUCTIONThis paper assesses the impact of a major expansion in airfield capacity at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) airport. On October 1, 1996, a new runway, 35R/17L, wascommissioned. Nine days later, the airspace was entirely reconfigured and newprocedures introduced. These changes allowed triple and quadruple independent arrivalstreams under IFR and VFR conditions, respectively. Arrival capacities increased from102 to 146 under VFR, and from 66 to 108 under IFR [1].The need for and benefits of increased airport capacity have been the subject ofextensive study, both at the broad policy level and in the context of specific proposals toimprove the National Airspace System. Two features distinguish the work presented herefrom much of what has been done previously. First, our study is retrospective, and baseddirectly on empirical observation. Understandably, the preponderance of capacity/delaystudies endeavor to predict how proposed changes will affect system performance. Suchpredictions are essential to inform investment decisions, which are usually irreversible andoften involve huge expenditures. Predictive studies must, however, rely on simulation andmodeling tools, whose results are subject to a wide variety of errors. Retrospectivestudies like the one presented here cannot directly inform decisions, but can observe whatactually happened in the aftermath of a NAS investment. They therefore provide a usefulcheck on predictive, model-based, studies.Second, our analysis pays considerable attention to adaptations made by airlines,as well as operational impacts. Predictive analyses of NAS improvements generally ignorethe impacts of the improvements on the demand for NAS services. Yet economic logicHansen, Tsao, Huang, and Wei2suggests that when airport congestion is alleviated, users will adjust their airport use inorder to take advantage of the improved conditions. Such changes may lead to additionalbenefits from capacity expansion, but may also diminish the delay reduction benefits onwhich conventional studies focus. Central questions in our research are whether airlineadaptations can be observed in the DFW case, and how to define metrics that maycapture them.The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, background onthe DFW expansion, and on contemporaneous events that may also be reflected in ourdata, is presented. Section 3 considers the impact of the expansion on observed arrivalthroughput rates. Section examines delay impacts, and Section 5 investigates airlineadaptations. Conclusions are offered in Section 6.2. BACKGROUNDThe 1996 changes at DFW were initially conceived in the late 1980s, through twointerrelated planning efforts. The DFW Airport Development Plan (ADP)[2], completedin 1991, succeeded the 1967 Master Plan under which the airport was originally built.The ADP forecast 1.2 million aircraft operations in the year 2010. Without new runways,average aircraft delays exceeding 20 minutes per operation were anticipated. Two newrunways the one on the east side of the airport that opened in 1996 as well as one onthe west side scheduled to open in 2004 were proposed, along with other airfieldimprovements. The plan also called for a complete reconfiguration of the terminal area,which has since been replaced with a more incremental approach.Hansen, Tsao, Huang, and Wei3The changes in the air traffic control system were


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