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Use of land facets to design linkages for climate change

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Brost-Beier.2012.APPENDIX_to_LandFacetCorridors.EcolApps.PrePrint.pdfModifying resistance surfaces or corridor termini to produce corridors that better capture the focal land facetDiscussionEcological Applications, 22(1), 2012, pp. 87–103Ó 2012 by the Ecological Society of AmericaUse of land facets to design linkages for climate changeBRIAN M. BROST1AND PAUL BEIERSchool of Forestry and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona University,Flagstaff, Arizona 86011-5018 USAAbstract. Least-cost modeling for focal species is the most widely used method fordesigning conservation corridors and linkages. However, these linkages have been based oncurrent species’ distributions and land cover, both of which will change with large-scaleclimate change. One method to develop corridors that facilitate species’ shifting distributionsis to incorporate climate models into their design. But this approach is enormously complexand prone to error propagation. It also produces outputs at a grain size (km2) coarser than thegrain at which conservation decisions are made. One way to avoid these problems is to designlinkages for the continuity and interspersion of land facets, or recurring landscape units ofrelatively uniform topography and soils. This coarse-filter approach aims to conserve thearenas of biological activity rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. In thispaper, we demonstrate how land facets can be defined in a rule-based and adaptable way, andhow they can be used for linkage design in the face of climate change. We used fuzzy c-meanscluster analysis to define land facets with respect to four topographic variables (elevation,slope angle, solar insolation, and topographic position), and least-cost analysis to designlinkages that include one corridor per land facet. To demonstrate the flexibility of ourprocedures, we designed linkages using land facets in three topographically diverse landscapesin Arizona, USA. Our procedures can use other variables, including soil variables, to defineland facets. We advocate using land facets to complement, rather than replace, existing focalspecies approaches to linkage design. This approach can be used even in regions lacking landcover maps and is not affected by the bias and patchiness common in species occurrence data.Key words: adaptation; climate change; coarse-filter approach; connectivity; conservation planning;corridor; ecological process; land facets; topography.INTRODUCTIONShifts in species’ geographical distributions have beenthe most important mechanism through which plantsand animals coped with previous large-scale climatechanges (Graham and Grimm 1990, Huntley 2005), andhave already begun in response to the current episode ofclimate change (Grabherr et al. 1994, Parmesan 1996,Thomas and Lennon 1999). Though some species maybe capable of adapting to future climatic conditions(Millar et al. 2007, Skelly et al. 2007), it is likely thatmany species will only persist if they are capable ofcolonizing newly suitable habitat (Williams et al. 2005).However, habitat fragmentation can interfere with theability of species to track shifting climatic conditions.Consequently, many advocate the need for conservationcorridors and linkages between existing natural areas asa means to support movements necessary for species’range shifts (summarized by Mawdsley et al. 2009).Least-cost modeling for focal species is the mostwidely used method for designing corridors to connectwildland blocks (e.g., Walker and Craighead 1997,Singleton et al. 2002, Beier et al. 2006, 2007). Theobjective of least-cost modeling is to identify the swathof land that minimizes the ecological cost of movementthrough a landscape for a species (Adriaensen et al.2003, Beier et al. 2008). Each swath of land represents acorridor, and corridors for multiple focal species arecombined into a linkage design. Like most otherconservation plans, these designs have been based oncurrent species’ distributions and land cover. However,as climate changes, it is likely that some species currentlyoccupying a given area may no longer do so, while otherspecies may be new arrivals.One approach to develop corridors that accommodatespecies’ shifting distributions is to incorporate climatemodels into their design. We are aware of two effortsthat use this approach, both for the Cape Proteaceae ofSouth Africa. Williams et al. (2005) identified dispersalchains for individual species through 2050, each chainconsisting of temporally and spatially contiguoushabitat intended to allow a species to shift its range inresponse to climate change. Phillips et al. (2008) usednetwork flow models to optimize the identification ofdispersal chains. Both efforts relied on several linkedcomponents—emissions scenarios, general circulationmodels, regional circulation models, and models ofclimate envelopes—each of which, unfortunately, con-Manuscript received 8 February 2011; revised 8 June 2011;accepted 20 June 2011; final version received 27 July 2011.Corresponding Editor: T. G. O’Brien.1Present address: Great Lakes Indian Fish and WildlifeCommission, P.O. Box 9, Odanah, Wisconsin 54861 USA.E-mail: [email protected] some uncertainty. For example, emissions scenar-ios differ sixfold in predicted annual CO2emissions bythe year 2100 and climate projections differ vastlyamong the seven commonly used general circulationmodels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2001, Raper and Giorgi 2005). Divergence increasesfurther among regional circulation models which projectoutputs from a general circulation model onto a scalemore useful for modeling habitat change. Climateenvelope models require additional assumptions andnecessarily exclude some important components (e.g.,species interactions and altered disturbance regimes)that influence species’ distributions (Williams et al.2005). Furthermore, species–climate associations deter-mined from climate envelope modeling performed nobetter than chance for predicting the current distribu-tions of 68 of 100 European bird species (Beale et al.2008). Because these models are linked, errors propagatefrom each model to the next. Additionally, errors anduncertainties are compounded as models project furtherinto the future. Finally, these models produce mappedcorridors with a grain size (km2) that is coarser than thescale at which conservation corridors are implemented.To avoid these problems, Hunter et al. (1988),Anderson


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