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The California Hotspots Project I Identifying regions of rapid diversification of mammals Ed Davis M Koo C Conroy J Patton C Moritz Museum of Vertebrate Zoology UC Berkeley Funded by Resources Law Group CA State Parks Thanks to J Grinnell colleagues T Smith V Sork D Ackerly T Barnosky D Wake A Vandergast A Bohonak Goal To maintain evolutionary processes and the viability of species and functional landscapes necessary to achieve this Moritz 2002 After Frankel 1974 A policy driven challenge to evolutionary biologists Active process of land acquisition for conservation in CA CSP TNC others 0 5B last 5 yrs for purchase Prop 84 6B 2007 2013 Get it right make it count Include Evol Processes as a major factor in planning to assist resilience Rayburn take a bow Where are the areas of active diversification Evolutionary hotspots Environmental surrogates for evolutionary processes South Africa Cowling et al Diversification across lowland upland gradients edaphic gradients macroclimatic gradients Neo endemism of CA plants polyploid derivatives Stebbins Major 1965 Hypothesis Elevated neoendemism in regions with recent Plio Pleistocene development of full Mediterranean climate AND not subject to recent glaciation also Raven Axelrod 1978 Endemism richness for species vs lineages Rissler et al 2006 Key evolutionary processes Generative processes Opportunity Adaptive diversification Abiotic gradients Niche space climate soils Biotic interactions character displacement eg novel communities suture zones Non adaptive diversification Genetic drift Genetic isolation Stability What biological data do we have need to map Evol hotspots Geographic distributions phylogeny species phylogeographic lineages Hotspots for short branch taxa neo endemism Hotspots of phylogeographic endemism Suture zones Spatial information on ecotypic differentiation phenotypes Subspecies endemism as a surrogate Today mammals only Subspecies as surrogates for geographic patterns of phenotypic adaptive divergence Skepticism from some systematists May not reflect historical lineages good May be artefacts of inadequate sampling analysis of clines Variable criteria for recognition bad BUT evolutionists eg Grinnell Mayr have long used subspecies to describe geographic patterns of phenotypic variation and view subspecies as intermediates in the speciation process Diverse CA taxa Dipodomys 30 Tamias 16 Thomomys 16 Microtus 12 Chaetodipus 12 General approach Select near endemic taxa 130 subspecies 75 range in CA 26 species Estimate ranges 1km resolution MVZ points range map clipped MaxENT models Richness maps Endemism richness 1 area per cell mtDNA distance to sister species GenBANK unpubl Species neo endemism richness 1 area X 1 distance per cell Endemic species richness endemismrichness neo endemism 4 1 2 3 1 area Note island endemics excluded 1 SF Bay area R raviventris 2 Interior Coast Ranges D ingens D nitratoides A nelsoni 3 Tehachapi P alticola 4 Central Sierra S lyelli T alpinus 1 area 1 distance 3 4 recent lineages cf 1 2 old Note north central coast Endemic species foci of recent vs old taxa not 1 area weighted Richness Neo Richness 1 distance Central coast Tehachapi Central Sierra are foci Paleo Richness distance Essentially no difference to richness ie random Richness endemism richness of endemic subspecies North coast SF Bay Tehachapi San Bernadino CV Owens Valley Central coast Neo and subspecies endemism top 10 comparison with CA Fed Protected Areas Species subspecies neoendemism areas distinct except Tehachapis St Lucia San Bernadino Ranges Environmental correlates coastal gradients biogeographic overlap areas gradients Good potential for integrated reserve design in most areas except Nth coast Note other taxa approaches needed eg Sork Vandergast Bohonak etc MVZ Grinnell Project change over 100 yrs Across Yosemite transect many small mammal show upwards range shifts of 500 800m since 1920 with c 3C increase in monthly minimum temperature Management policy implications Specific don t get excited yet more taxa approaches to come General Rates of diversification are not randomly distributed cold hotspots Common theme is gradients ecotones stability Location of hotspots likely to shift with climate Protection of EHs requires large scale and coordinated planning to protect connectivity across gradients and large heterogeneous isolates Caveats Spatial errors in distribution estimates Minimized by combining models point estimates Error in inferring relative divergence time from mtDNA distance ancestral coalescence introgression etc likely overestimating divergence times adds noise Vagaries of subspecies classifications But most from Grinnell or his students so relatively consistent approach Current patterns of neo endemism may reflect environmental but not geographic space of origin eg late Q range shifts Components of Hotspots Project Evolutionary theory Selection isolation hybridization etc Spatial layers for environmental predictors Build test Conceptual model environmental predictors e g topographic climatic and geological complexity ecological stability Spatial patterns of diversity genetic phenotypic phylogenetic species Mammals amphibian reptiles birds plants Spatial prediction of rates of evolution hotspots Apply Conservation values gap analysis to identify priority areas for acquisition

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