Potential for Future Developmenton Fire-Prone LandsPatricia Gude, Ray Rasker, and Jeff van den NoortMost studies of wildland fire and residential development have focused on the cost of firefighting andsolutions such as fuel reduction and fire-safe home building. Although some studies quantify the numberof homes being built near forests, little research has indicated the potential magnitude of the problemin the future. This article presents data illustrating this emerging problem for western communities. Ouranalysis takes a long view, looking at the potential for more home construction next to public forestsand implications for future wildfire fighting costs. In a study of 11 western states, we found that only14% of the available “wildland interface” in the West is currently developed, leaving great potentialfor new home construction in the remaining 86%. If just one-half of the wildland interface is developedin the future, annual firefighting costs could escalate to $4.3 billion. By comparison, the Forest Service’sannual budget is about $4.5 billion.Keywords: wildfire, forest fire, wildland–urban interface, residential developmentLarge areas of land are being con-verted to housing in the westernUnited States. The current prefer-ence for rural landscapes (Johnson and Beale1994, Johnson 1999), the increasing popu-larity of large lots (Theobald et al. 1997,Hammer et al. 2004), and the powerfuldraw of natural amenities (Rasker and Han-sen 2000, Schnaiberg et al. 2002, Radeloff etal. 2005, Gude et al. 2006) have all contrib-uted to this trend. Widespread populationgains in nonmetropolitan counties havetaken place since roughly 1970 (Brown et al.2005), and housing has become increasinglydispersed, particularly in rural areas whereland is more affordable. The popularity oflow-density development has lead to largeareas of land being converted to housing,because each home is consuming more land(Theobald et al. 1997, Hammer et al. 2004).Adjacency to lakes, seashores, forests, na-tional parks and other protected areas arestrongly related to the locations of recentlybuilt rural homes (Bartlett et al. 2000,Rasker and Hansen 2000, Radeloff et al.2001, Schnaiberg et al. 2002, Radeloff et al.2005, Gude et al. 2006, Gude et al. 2007).The wildland interface is an area rich innatural amenities, where population growthand new housing is on the rise (Radeloff etal. 2005, Theobald and Romme 2007). In2000, 4% of western homes were locatedwithin the wildland–urban interface(WUI), generally defined as areas wherestructures and other human developmentmeet or intermingle with undeveloped wild-land (Office of Inspector General [OIG]2006). According to Theobald and Romme(2007), the states with the greatest propor-tion of residential land conversion in thewildland interface from 1970 to 2000 weremostly in the West. In addition, in manywestern states more than 50% of new hous-ing areas fall within areas classified as severe-fire zones, which are prone to catastrophicfires (Theobald and Romme 2007).Recent increases in the area burned an-nually by wildfire (National InteragencyFire Center [NIFC] 2007) and the numberof homes burned by these fires have put theWUI in the national spotlight. Many studiescommunicated in the scientific literature,government documents, and the popularpress have described the cost of firefighting,the risk to firefighter lives, and the damage toprivate property. A recent government auditidentified the WUI as the primary factor es-calating federal firefighting costs in excess of$1 billion in 3 of the past 6 years (Office ofInspector General [OIG] 2006). In 87% oflarge wildfires reviewed in the audit, the pro-tection of private property was described as amajor reason for firefighting efforts (OIG2006). In addition to the financial costs,homes in the wildland interface are oftendifficult to protect and create dangerous sit-uations for firefighters because of remote-ness, steep slopes, and narrow roads. In theReceived October 24, 2007; accepted May 1, 2008.Patricia Gude ([email protected]) is landscape ecologist, Ray Rasker ([email protected]) is executive director, and Jeff van den Noort([email protected]) is research and technology manager, Headwaters Economics, 810 N. Wallace Avenue, Suite D, Bozeman, MT 59715. The authorsthank The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation for their generous financial support. Two anonymous reviewers and W. Keith Moser provided helpful commentson the article.Copyright © 2008 by the Society of American Foresters.198 Journal of Forestry • June 2008ABSTRACTfire5-year period from 2002 to 2006, $6.3 bil-lion in federal funds were spent fightingwildfires (NIFC 2007) and 92 people werekilled during wildland fire operations (Na-tional Wildfire Coordinating Group Safetyand Health Working Team 2007); but de-spite the firefighting efforts, 10,159 homeswere lost to wildfires during this period(NIFC 2007).Most discussions of possible solutionsand existing federal wildfire policies have fo-cused on improving wildland fuels manage-ment (Stephens and Ruth 2005). Most stud-ies agree that a combination of thinning andprescribed burning is effective in reducingwildfire effects in specific habitats character-ized by short fire-return intervals (Price andRind 1994, Pollet and Omi 2002, Fried etal. 2004, Martinson and Omi 2006). How-ever, many recent studies also conclude thatwildfire damage and costs may continue torise despite fuels management because of ex-treme weather conditions, such as thedroughts, high winds, and increased light-ning forecasted to occur in a warming cli-mate (Price and Rind 1994, Pollet and Omi2002, Fried et al. 2004, Pierce et al. 2004,Westerling et al. 2006). The forecastedgrowth in catastrophic wildfires implies thatclimatic change could cause an increase inboth fire suppression costs and economiclosses due to wildfires (Torn et al. 1998).The West is already experiencing fires,driven by drought and strong winds, thatburn open forests, conventionally viewed asrelatively fire resistant, and closed forestsalike (Whitlock 2004).While both the effectiveness and thepublic approval of thinning and prescribedburns are being investigated (Beebe andOmi 1993, Shindler and Toman 2003,Youngblood et al. 2007), recent studies havepointed out that the likelihood of a houseburning has more to do with home ignitabil-ity and landscaping than backcountry wild-land fuels management (Cohen 2000).Guidelines for the amount of