Assumption 1Review 1. Forward/backward survival estimates of migration 2. Forward survival and the open ended age category. 3. Projection of stable characteristics (e.g., race educational attainment, literacy) 4. Source of CSRs 5. Purpose and mechanics of pop projections 6. Projection of variable characteristics (e.g., employment status, living arrangements, poverty) 1Forward/backward survival estimates of migration Q: Use forward (and backward) survival methods to calculate age-specific (and total) net migration to/from North region Age National population North region 1996 Census 2000 Census 1996 Census 2000 Census 0- 4 19625 17358 4509 4059 5-9 20231 18369 4614 408610-14 20249 19197 4165 421515-19 16472 17910 3990 435320- 24 12108 14787 3095 3804 25- 29 9744 11034 2474 2751 30- 34 7459 8964 1871 221435- 39 7043 7137 1655 178840- 44 5639 6513 1265 151545- 49 4743 5259 911 1164 50- 54 3479 4221 718 807 55- 59 2568 3066 450 594 60- 64 1971 2211 381 387 65+ 2927 3321 434 522 2Example from PS #8 North region Age 1996 Census 2001 Census CSRs projected survivors (forward) Difference= NM projected # (backward) Difference= NM 0- 4 4509 4509 4365 -144 5-9 4614 4086 0.9360000 4220 -134 4442 -17210-14 4165 4215 0.9488903 4378 -163 4921 75615-19 3990 4353 0.8844881 3684 669 4237 24720- 24 3095 3804 0.8977052 3582 222 3019 -7625- 29 2474 2751 0.9112983 2820 -69 2407 -6730- 34 1871 2214 0.9199507 2276 -62 1869 -235- 39 1655 1788 0.9568307 1790 -2 1638 -1740- 44 1265 1515 0.9247480 1530 -15 1248 -1745- 49 911 1164 0.9326122 1180 -16 907 -450- 54 718 807 0.8899431 811 -4 674 -4455- 59 450 594 0.8812877 633 -39 449 -160- 64 381 387 0.8609813 387 0 770-45 65+ 434 522 0.6780319 553-31 356 414Take average 385 3Projection of stable characteristics Using the methods described in the paper by Hermalin and Christenson and the data from Mexico below, answer the following: a. What is the projected proportion of Mexicans age 55-64 that will be literate in 2000, 2010, and 2020? b. What is the projected proportion of Mexicans age 65+ that will be literate in 2000, 2010, and 2020? (for convenience, let’s assume that literacy is a fixed characteristic – i.e., the number of illiterate adults who learn to read and write is negligibly small) 1980 1980 1990 1990Age Total Population Literate population Total Population Literate population 15-19 7,656,539 7,114,592 9,664,403 9,268,72220-24 6,154,527 5,584,296 7,829,163 7,395,70325-29 4,804,392 4,219,010 6,404,512 5,929,46830-34 3,838,059 3,274,644 5,387,619 4,921,65435-39 3,406,934 2,750,979 4,579,116 4,019,22440-44 2,745,198 2,155,515 3,497,770 2,955,58345-49 2,315,629 1,746,528 2,971,860 2,376,58450-54 1,863,963 1,356,333 2,393,791 1,854,18555-59 1,465,903 1,049,483 1,894,484 1,407,97860-64 1,115,146 732,683 1,611,317 1,119,08865+ 2,561,120 1,491,607 3,376,841 2,105,878 41980 1980 1990 1990Age Total Population Literate population Total Population Literate population % literate 90 % literate 00 % literate 10 % literate 20 15-19 7,656,539 7,114,592 9,664,403 9,268,722 0.9590620-24 6,154,527 5,584,296 7,829,163 7,395,703 0.9446425-29 4,804,392 4,219,010 6,404,512 5,929,468 0.92583 0.9590630-34 3,838,059 3,274,644 5,387,619 4,921,654 0.91351 0.9446435-39 3,406,934 2,750,979 4,579,116 4,019,224 0.87773 0.92583 0.9590640-44 2,745,198 2,155,515 3,497,770 2,955,583 0.84499 0.91351 0.9446445-49 2,315,629 1,746,528 2,971,860 2,376,584 0.79970 0.87773 0.92583 0.9590650-54 1,863,963 1,356,333 2,393,791 1,854,185 0.77458 0.84499 0.91351 0.9446455-59 1,465,903 1,049,483 1,894,484 1,407,978 0.74320 0.79970 0.87773 0.9258360-64 1,115,146 732,683 1,611,317 1,119,0880.694520.77458 0.84499 0.9135165+ 2,561,120 1,491,6073,376,841 2,105,878 0.62362 0.67313 0.73052 0.79671 CSR proj pop 2000 proj pop 2010 proj pop 2020 # literate 2000 # literate 2010 # literate 2020 25-29 0.836476115 8084042 775306430-34 0.875391236 6853581 647413435-39 0.953110404 6104207 7704985 5651438 738952740-44 0.911338257 4909943 6245931 4485291 590012645-49 0.872297497 39943515324684 6721039 3505959 4929734 6445866 50-54 0.871992111 3050028428143254464032577245 3911139 5144864 55-59 0.818129329 2431366 3267896 4356280 1944353 2868328 4033160 60-64 0.86445761 2069331 2636620 3701116 1602864 2227919 3381013 65+ 0.656695842 4519802 5923724 7767556 3042435 4327397 6188468 % literate 55-64 0.7881484 0.8631100 0.9201699 % literate 65+ 0.6731346 0.7305197 0.7967072 1Net Transition Rates Finland - 1980 Finland -1990 Age Total Pop. Econ Active Pop. Total Pop. Econ Active Pop. CSR expect LF 90 observeLF 90 diff mid-period pop Trans rate A B C D E H I J K L M given given given given =D/B =C*H E =J-I =(C+D)/2=(K/L)* 1,000 15-19 194,406 39,387 155,219 38,622 0.990 39006 170594 131588 104991 1253.3320-24 195,603 122,407 175,039 115,157 1.002 122656 182136 59480 152272 390.6225-29 207,364 177,313 192,527 170,594 0.999 177156 192186 15030 184750 81.3530-34 230,203 211,502 196,001 182,136 0.982 207708 208625 917 210064 4.3735-39 164,615 152,214 207,180 192,186 1.003 152630 148632 -3998 150423 -26.5840-44 145,273 132,390 226,073 208,625 0.940 124475 114086 -10389 123238 -84.3045-49 134,043 117,385 165,065 148,632 0.916 107546 77236 -30310 97311 -311.4850-54 136,364 109,587 136,588 114,086 0.862 94492 34661 -59831 72124 -829.5655-59 115,589 74,510 122,808 77,236 0.795 59203 2303-56900 38407 -1481.5060-64 88,177 36,441 117,581 34,661 0.499 25263 742 -24521 25695 -954.3165-69 82,639 9,190 91,843 2,30370+ 124,795 5,017 147,452 742 17 Korea - 1980 Korea -1990 Age Total Pop. Econ Active Pop. Total Pop. Econ Active Pop. age 80 age 90 CSR expect LF 90 observeLF 90 diff mid-period pop Trans rate A B C D E F G H I J K L M given given given given =F+10 =D/B =C*H E =J-I=(C+D)/2=(K/L)*1,00015-19 2,167,767 566,647