STATISTICS 10 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL REASONING Section 1—Boelter 3400 Winter, 2004 Instructor: Dr. Susan Cochran Professor, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health Office: 71-245 Center for Health Sciences, School of Public Health Stat Office: 2943 Math Sciences (For Monday and Wednesday morning office hours only) Phone: (310) 206-9310 Email: [email protected] Office hours: M 11-12 & W 11-12 (Stat Office), W 2-3 (Public Health office) TAs: Ms. Annie Che Ms. Yijing Shen Office: 3903 Math Sciences 3969 Math Sciences Email: [email protected] [email protected] Office hours: Meeting times and places: Lectures: Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 10:00-10:50am, Boelter 3400 Discussion Sections ID Time Room TA 1A Tu 9-10 MS 5128 Yijing Shen 1B Tu 10-11 MS 5128 Yijing Shen 1C Tu 11-12 MS 5128 Annie Che 1D Tu 12-1 MS 5128 Annie Che Overview: This course is an introduction to the study of uncertainty and scientific decision-making. Contrary to popular belief, statistics is not all math. Here, you will be introduced to methods of making informed decisions about what we observe in the world around us. The course emphasizes conceptual understanding of the material; hand calculations require no more preparation than elementary algebra. You need a hand-calculator that can store ΣX2 in memory. A good choice is one that has memory functions to store separately the sums of two variables (x and y) and produce r (the correlation). During exams you may not use a "hand held" electronic device, like a PDA (e.g., Palm, Clie), cellphone, laptop, or any hand calculator that has the capacity to store class notes or to communicate with others (for obvious reasons). So it is best to obtain an inexpensive hand calculator that you are comfortable using to have ready for exams. Text: Required: Freedman, D., Pisani, R., & Purves, R, Statistics, 3rd edition. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1998. There is also a supplemental “Reader” for the course in the Student Store that includes copies of my overheads used in lecture, practice questions for exams, and other handouts. The web: Some course materials and lecture outlines are on the web. There are 2 ways to reach the course. One is through your automatic my.ucla web page. The second way is to go directly to the real site. Sometimes this works better. The address is: http://web.stat.ucla.edu/~cochran/stat10/winter Please download my lecture outlines to make your notetaking easier, but with the caveat that the notes reflect only what I intend to say, and as has been said before, "the best laid plans often go astray." Sections: In sections, the TA will review the homework problem sets with you as well as give you practice with other concepts covered in the course. This is also an opportunity to review material presented in class and to have a more personal experience with your classmates. Students who attend discussion sections regularly usually obtain better grades in this course than those who do not. Exams: There will be two midterms (Friday, January 30 and Friday, February 20) and a final (Monday, March 22, 8-11 am). Mark your calendars now; there will be no early or late exams given for any reason. The midterms are not cumulative. One half of the final exam will cover the material presented after the second midterm and is essentially a 3rd "midterm"; 1/2 of the final will be cumulative covering the whole course. You may use a hand-held calculator during the exams. Exams will be based on lectures andthe textbook. Given the size of the class this quarter, exams will be multiple choice. Doing the homework and the exercises in the book (including those not assigned as homework) are the best means of preparation for the exams. Always bring your student photo ID to exams because identification will be checked on a random basis. Homework: There are 9 problem sets assigned--but #3 and #7 are not turned in for credit so that I can post the answers to aid your studying for the midterms. Assignments and the date the 7 other assignments are due are listed below. The problem numbers refer to the REVIEW EXERCISES at the end of the chapter unless SR (Special Review Section) is specified. Assignments are turned in at the end of class lecture on the day due. Each homework assignment is graded as follows: Points Criteria 0 Not done 2 Less than 1/2 done 4 1/2 or more done but not completely done 6 All problems done The homework is meant to give you practice at mastering concepts--for this reason you will not be penalized for occasionally getting the wrong answer. Because homework is being graded for how much of it you attempted and completed, the decision as to how "done" is done will be left to the reader. Answers that suggest you did not thoroughly attempt the homework, such as answering simply "yes" or "no" to complicated questions or answering most questions in a way that indicates you did not study the chapter, will not be considered "done." You are free to work with friends in doing the homework, but homework that is copied from a friend or some other source is cheating. You must show all your work. Grading: Your grade will be determined as follows: Work Product What is used Maximum points Homework Your 6 highest scores of 7 assignments 36 Midterm 1 Midterm 2 200 Final--"Midterm" portion only Each of these are 100 pts possible. From your 3 exams, I will drop the midterm exam or the "midterm" portion of the final that is your worst performance, keeping only your two best exams.* Final—Cumulative portion The cumulative portion of the final 100 *You must take all exams (see missed exams below). There are no interim letter grades given for each midterm. Your course grade is determined by the total points you accumulate. Despite the teaching staff's best efforts to keep exam difficulty constant, there often are variations. In order to adjust for this and to keep grading fair I will do the following: • To adjust for differences in exam difficulty in deciding which to drop: I may standardize the midterm points to maintain equivalence in the value of points you obtain before selecting which midterm to drop. For fairness, your final will be adjusted as well. I will tell the class if I do this. • To adjust for the general level of exam difficulty for this class: I will set the maximum