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UT Arlington IE 3301 - 3301-Ch2-Bayes

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IE 3301 Supplementary Problems for Bayes’ Theorem [1] Two methods, A and B, are available for teaching a certain industrial skill. The failure rate is 20% for A and 10% for B. However, B is more expensive and hence is used only 30% of the time. A worker is taught the skill by one of the methods, but fails to learn it correctly. What is the probability that he was taught by Method A?[2] Suppose it is known 1% of the population suffers from a particular disease. A blood test has a 97% chance of identifying the disease for diseased individuals, but also has a 6% chance of falsely indicating that a healthy person has the disease. (a) What is the probability that a person will have a positive blood test? (b) If your blood test is positive, what is the chance that you have the disease? (c) If your blood test is negative, what is the chance that you do not have the


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UT Arlington IE 3301 - 3301-Ch2-Bayes

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