Team Final Project Business 304 Business Statistics Instructor: Fang Fang Class: M, W 11:30-12:50 Group: Cody Britton Gregory Ortiz Stephano Bonham Carlos Fierro TITLE: “What will it take for you to ride the ‘Sprinter’?”1 Team Statistical Analysis Background Demographics-CSUSM In order to properly conduct research analysis and/or statistical data analysis on a particular topic, one must have a heightened knowledge of the population in which the sample data is received. San Diego County is one of the largest growing regions in California. Within its borders, San Diego County has many well known and renown college institutions, one of which is California State San Marcos (CSUSM). CSUSM is a densely populated and diverse university. The school is home to over 8,734 students, 5000 of which are full time students (QuickStats). Of this population, nearly 49.88% are 22 years or younger, 21.90% are ages 23-25, 18.92% are ages 26-36, 9.30% are 36 or older (QuickStats). Aside from age demographics, CSUSM can also be broken up into gender. According to Quick Stats for 2007, Cal State San Marcos housed 3,256 male students and 5,478 female students, which put their gender characteristics at 37.3% and 62.7% respectively (QuickStats). California State University San Marcos remains one of the largest destination schools. People commute from every direction. They enroll students from as far Southern San Diego to as far north as San Bernardino and LA county. Remaining a commuting school, CSUSM is uniquely divers in its ethnicity breakdown. Roughly 3.3% of CSUSM is African American, 11.2% is Asian/Pacific Islander, 21.1% is Latino, 1% Native American, 50% white, 13.4% other, (QuickStats).2 Introduction Test Hypothesis: “Those who produce a lower annual income are more inclined to ride the Sprinter if price for parking rises” Our survey was crucial to our statistical analysis. The questions we asked our sample proved to be very useful in supporting our research question. We began by asking our sample what gender and age they were. To get an accurate sample, the sample demographics must accurately resemble the population demographics. This is also important to our research because those who are younger or are female may feel less safe using public transportation than those who are male or older. Age is also critical in our research because those who are older often are more financially stable; therefore do not feel the financial strain of paying for parking as would a younger individual with lower financial income. Most importantly, having a sample that accurately represents the population (CSUSM demographics), our research will have a more accurate and definite meaning than would a sample that didn’t represent or resemble the population in which it came. The next questions, which proved to be very useful, and a key part of our research were ethnicity and level of education. Again, having a sample that best resembles the population of CSUSM is key to our research. Having a sample that both resembles the ethnicity of the college and level of education of individuals will have a smaller sampling error and less similarities in the research we are trying to prove. Some of the general3 questions we asked our sample were about their job, pay, hours worked, hours at school, and whether or not they pay for their own school/parking. These questions are all very important to our research because a person who goes to school more hours may work less and therefore has less of an ability to pay for school/parking than would a person who works more and is paid more at their job. These are all key points in our statistical data and will prove to be very useful in proving our research hypothesis. Some other general questions were asked of our sample in order to view the commuting patterns and transportation preferences of the individuals. These questions are also important because if one does not know of the Sprinter or has never ridden it, then he or she is less likely to be inclined to think the Sprinter is a good idea, or is less likely to consider riding it if parking prices went up. Asking the sample if they have other forms of transportation in which they use allows the researchers (us) to see whether or not these are reactions or usage in response to the high cost of parking. Plan The plan of our research method is to accurately conduct a sample of 100 students who attend California Sate University San Marcos. This sample will be used to prove our research hypothesis. The survey used for the sample will be comprised of different questions, which gather information of the students Qualitative, and General characteristics. Our research team will each administer 25 surveys to 25 random students that attend CSUSM. Because we have four researchers the total number of administered surveys will be 100. This will ensure that the sample will be at random and that no one4 person is responsible for collecting the data; therefore none of the data will be subject to a bias. There will be no distribution of the survey using stratified random sampling, in which subgroups are identified. Our team feels that in order to get the best representation in the sample to population, the survey must be handed out using Simple Random Sampling in which every possible sample of a specific size has an equal chance of being selected. The theorem, which we hope to replicate and use to base our research on, is the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). This theorem states that “for simple random samples n observations taken from a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ, regardless of the population’s distribution, provided the sample size is sufficiently large, the distribution of the sample means will be approximately normal with a mean equal to the population mean and a standard deviation equal to the population standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size. The larger the sample size, the better the approximation to the normal distribution”(Pearson, 647). Prediction Our prediction is that there will be a positive linear correlation between annual income and decision to ride the sprinter if parking prices raises X amount of dollars. We feel that as the samples income goes up they are less likely to commute by Sprinter if prices went up X amount. This prediction is based off of the idea that individuals who have a higher annual income are less likely to feel the