17.251 Congressional Politics I Fall 1998 Midterm Exam I. Short answer. Answer three of the following five questions. Answers should take no more than 2 blue book pages. 1. The most recent Gallup/CNN poll asked From what you have heard, do you believe that Congress should impeach President Clinton, or censure him, meaning that Congress reprimands the president but does not impeach, or should Congress drop the matter? These are the results of the poll, broken down by party: Dems Reps Impeach 7% 38% Censure 33% 47% Drop matter 60% 15% Assuming that senators and representatives have exactly the same distribution of opinions about impeachment as respondents to this poll, use the spatial voting model to predict whether the House would vote to impeach and, if the House impeaches, whether the Senate would vote to convict. For the purpose of this exercise, assume the House is 55% Republican and the Senate is 60% Republican. 2. What precise organizational failings of the Confederation Congress did the Constitution seek to overcome; in what way were they overcome? 3. What are the rules changes in the House that are associated with Speaker Thomas B. Reed (Speaker 1889  91, 1895  99), and why did he find it necessary to support these rules changes? 4. What are the most important ways in which the overall dynamics of congressional elections differ in midterm versus presidential election years? 5. How does the primary electorate differ from the general electorate? What difference does this make for determining who is nominated by the parties to run for Congress?II. Essay Pretend you have woken up next Wednesday morning, picked up the newspaper, and read about the results in the previous day's congressional elections. Write an essay in which you (1) summarize the election outcomes, (2) discuss why the election turned out as it did, and (3) discuss how the behavior of Congress will be changed (or not) as a consequence of this election. In summarizing the election outcome, you should make a prediction about how the election will turn out (preferably at the aggregate, national level), including a prediction about the net swing in seats toward or away from the Republicans, in the House and Senate. Justify your prediction. In discussing why the election turned out as it did, include both material that you have encountered in this course, but feel free to draw on what you know from press accounts about the election. Finally, in discussing your prediction of how the election will affect behavior in the 106th Congress, make sure you remark on the impeachment proceedings, in addition to any policy issues you think important to