2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 military victory negotiated settlement stalemate ceasefire military victory government military victory rebels identity 182 191 206 208 173 identity war termination type 078 496 460 187 045 identity war termination type 332 036 093 222 265 military victory negotiated settlement stalemate ceasefire military victory government military victory rebels territorial war 099 074 137 103 098 territorial war war termination type 243 149 013 115 199 military victory negotiated settlement stalemate ceasefire military victory government military victory rebels duration years 1 5 047 056 026 033 034 duration years 1 10 090 106 051 064 066 duration years 1 20 137 159 080 101 104 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Theory Argument Mutual benefit mutual harm 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Figure 3 Provision of harm and or benefit and Civil War Termination Types Provision of Benefit Provision of Harm No Yes No Stalemate ceasefire Government Victory Yes Negotiated Settlement Rebel Victory 37 Implications 38 39 Appendix I List of cases and key variables state 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 startyr USSR I Greece USSR II China I Indonesia I Israel Palest Bolivia I India Ia Iran I Philippines I Vietnam I Madagascar Paraguay Burma I Burma II Colombia I Costa Rica India II Malaysia South Korea Yemen North I China IIa Indonesia II Korea Bolivia II Egypt Kenya I Morocco I Tunisia Indonesia III Algeria I China IIb Guatemala I Argentina Cameroon Sudan Ia Cuba India IIIa Vietnam II Indonesia IV Iraq I Lebanon Ia Burma III Iraq II Laos Burma IV Guatemala II Zaire Congo I Angola I endyr warterm 1942 1944 1944 1945 1945 1945 1946 1946 1946 1946 1946 1947 1947 1948 1948 1948 1948 1948 1948 1948 1948 1950 1950 1950 1952 1952 1952 1952 1952 1953 1954 1954 1954 1955 1955 1955 1956 1956 1957 1958 1958 1958 1959 1959 1959 1960 1960 1960 1961 1950 1949 1952 1949 1949 1949 1946 1949 1946 1954 1954 1948 1947 1989 2001 1958 1948 1948 1960 1948 1948 1951 1950 1953 1952 1952 1956 1956 1956 1959 1962 1959 1954 1955 1960 1972 1959 1975 1975 1961 1958 1958 2001 1959 1973 1994 1996 1965 1974 recur 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 50 Ethiopia I 51 Iraq IIIa 52 Yemen North II 53 Algeria II 54 Cyprus Ia 55 GuineaBissau I 56 Rwanda Ia 57 Colombia II 58 Mozambique I 59 Burundi Ia 60 Chad 61 Domin Republic 62 India Ib 63 Indonesia V 64 China III 65 Namibia 66 Uganda I 67 Nigeria I 68 Philippines II 69 Cambodia Ia 70 Jordan 71 Pakistan I 72 Sri Lanka Ia 73 Bangladesh 74 Burundi Ib 75 Philippines IIIa 76 Zimbabwe 77 Chile 78 Pakistan II 79 Cyprus Ib 80 Iraq IIIb 81 Angola IIa 82 Ethiopia II 83 Indonesia VI 84 Lebanon Ib 85 Morocco II 86 Mozambique II 87 Ethiopia III 88 Afghanistan I 89 Cambodia Ib 90 Iran IIa 91 Nicaragua 92 El Salvador 93 India IIIb 94 Syria 95 Iraq IIIc 96 Nigeria II 97 Peru 98 Uganda II 99 Iran IIb 100 India IV 101 South Africa 102 Sri Lanka II 103 Sudan Ib 104 Turkey 105 Yemen South 106 Sri Lanka Ib 107 Azerbaijan USSR 108 Burundi Ic 109 India Ic 110 Somalia 111 Liberia 112 Romania 113 Georgia I 1961 1961 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1967 1969 1970 1970 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1977 1978 1978 1978 1978 1979 1979 1979 1980 1980 1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1993 1970 1970 1963 1964 1974 1964 2001 1975 1965 1997 1966 1965 1966 1969 1990 1966 1970 2001 1975 1971 1971 1971 1997 1972 1996 1979 1973 1977 1974 1975 1994 1991 1999 1990 1991 1992 1978 2001 1991 1979 1990 1992 1997 1982 1991 1984 1999 1986 1982 1993 1994 2001 2001 2001 1986 1989 1994 1988 2001 2001 1997 1989 1992 41 1 2 1 0 3 1 0 4 1 0 2 2 3 0 1 2 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 1 0 3 0 2 1 2 0 3 2 0 4 2 1 2 2 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 4 4 4 1 0 3 0 4 4 1 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 114 Rwanda Ib 115 Burundi Id 116 Iraq IV 117 Moldova 118 Sierra Leone 119 Yugoslavia I 120 Algeria III 121 Georgia II 122 Tajikistan 123 Yugoslavia II 124 Brazzaville Ia 125 Burundi Ie 126 Russia Ia 127 Yemen 128 Zaire Congo II 129 Brazzaville Ib 130 Angola IIb 131 GuineaBissau II 132 Yugoslavia III 133 Russia Ib 134 Philippines IIIb 1990 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1996 1997 1998 1998 1998 1999 2000 1994 1991 1993 1997 2001 1995 2001 1993 1997 1995 1993 2001 1996 1994 2001 1997 2001 1999 1999 2001 2001 42 1 0 0 3 4 2 4 3 2 2 2 4 3 0 4 1 4 1 1 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary statistics of key variables Variable Obs Mean Std Dev Min Max startyear 134 1969 179 16 46452 1942 2000 endyr 134 1977 41 18 67337 1946 2001 warterm 134 1 395522 1 371124 0 4 recur 134 1567164 3648973 0 1 category 134 6343284 4834252 0 1 polpre1 95 1 547368 6 516376 10 10 polpre5 91 2 626374 6 558537 10 10 polity0 97 1 670103 6 602906 10 10 polity5avdif 80 5 6 41004 15 14 polityav10 f 66 3181818 6 732605 15 …