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Trendlines Ex_K.docTRENDLINESProblem 1 (i) Use the exponential model in the CPS example to predict the caseload in the year 2003. (ii) Repeat Part (i) using the linear model.Problem 2 (i) Fit a 6th degree polynomial trend line through the data points in the CPS example. (ii) What caseload does this model predict for the year 2002? (iii) Does increasing the degree of a polynomial trend line seem to improve its predictive value?Problem 3 During the first six days of a special promotion, a small business records the following sales information. The dollar amount listed for each day is the total cumulative sales from the start of the promotion.Day 1 2 3 4 5 6Total Sales $29,390 $37,358 $47,116 $50,604 $57,066 $60,666(i) Fit a Power trend line to the data and use it to estimate the total sales during the first nine daysof the promotion. (ii) Repeat Part (i), using a Linear trend line. (iii) Which model do you think is more realistic?Problem 4 Fit an exponential trend line to the following data and use the equation of the line to predict the highest closing price during July. Highest Monthly Close of MONEY.com Stock SharesMonth Name January February March April MayMonth Number 1 2 3 4 5Highest Close $65.35 $65.95 $67.71 $68.62 $71.24Problem 5 (i) Fit a linear trend line to the data in Exercise 6, and use this model to predict the highest closing price during July. (ii) Fit a 3rd degree polynomial trend line to the data in Exercise 6, and use this model to predict the highest closing price during July. (iii) Do you think that trend lines can provide a reliable way to predict stock prices?Trendlines Ex_K.docProblem 6 The Flimsy Plastic Company produces toys for children in the age group from three to six years. A regional sales office has kept records on the number of children in this range that live in its territory.3-6 Year Olds in Sales TerritoryYear 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995Population (K’s) 390 410 440 460 470Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Population (K’s) 510 540 570 580 620(i) Experiment with several different types of trend lines to determine which model best fits the data. (ii) Use the type of trend line that you select to predict the number of 3-6 year olds that willbe in the sales territory in the year


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UA MATH 115B - TRENDLINES

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