Philosophy 1102 1st edition Lecture 13 Outline of last lecturel. Causality Il. Mill’s MethodOutline of Current lecture lll. Limitations of Mill’s MethodslV. Inference to the best explanation V. Hypothesis testing, Experiments, and Predictions Current Lecturelll. Limitations of Mill’s Methods A. False cause fallacies can occur if Mill’s methods are applied simplisticallyB. Mill’s methods help reveal a necessary ingredient in causation (a correlation), but do not provide sufficient evidence of causationC. Understanding the how and why of cause functions goes beyond identifying cause-effect relationships to the development of theories and hypothesis-the basis of scientific reasoning IV. Inference to the nest explanation A. Abduction: The process that occurs when we infer explanations for certain facts B. Inference to the best explanation: Reasoning from the premise that hypothesis would explain certain facts to the conclusion that hypothesis is the best explanation for those facts.- The best hypothesis should provide a causal explanation based on:- Historical data- Contemporary knowledge- Strong probability V. Hypothesis testing, Experiments, and Predictions A. Scientific theories must:- Stand up to serve and repeated testing of hypotheses - Provide coherent and effective explanations- Provide correct predictions - Help to discover new facts about the world B. Controlled Experiments- One in which multiple experimental setups differ by only one variable, therebyhelping to uncover causal relationships.- Experimental group: The group that gets the variable being tested- Control group: The group in which the variable being tested is withheld C. Determining Causality - Explanation of the five criteria:1. A correlation is required, but cannot in itself establish a causal relationshipPhilosophy 1102 1st edition2. (and 3.)The time lag/spatial distance between cause and effect must be considered (the longer the time lag/greater the spatial distance, the more the situation can be interrupted by other variables). 4. Required that “X caused Y” be backed by: (1) X was sufficient to bring about Y; and (2) X was necessary for Y (without X, Y would not have occurred)5. Ruling out plausible alternative explanations means that the evidence both refutes rival claims and confirms the hypothesis. D. The need for fair a fair test - A good test of a hypothesis involves making a prediction - The truth or falsity of the prediction provides evidence to refute (disconfirm) or support (confirm) the hypothesis- A good prediction helps judge the strength of a causal argument - Requirements for a fair test of a causal hypothesis- The prediction should be verifiable - The prediction should not be trivial - The prediction should have a logical connection to the