Zero Emission Vehicles A Dirty Little Secret Howard Gruenspecht California s decision to mandate the sale of zero emissions vehicles ZEVs as a means of improving air quality in the state looked like a clear victory for the environment However technology breakthroughs have proven elusive resulting in ZEVs with high costs and poor performance If the costs of producing ZEVs and subsidizing their purchase are spread across California s new car market consumers are likely to respond to the price increases by holding onto their older vehicles which have much higher emissions rates Even a small increase in their use will generate extra emissions that will more than offset emissions reductions from ZEVs ven though California no longer holds the undisputed title for the worst air pollution in the United States many areas within the state still exceed federal and state air quality standards As policymakers in California seek effective ways to improve air quality good intentions have occasionally resulted in some deeply flawed programs The state s mandate for the sale of zeroemissions vehicles ZEVs now scheduled to take effect in the 2003 model year falls into this category It represents a triumph of environmental symbolism over environmental substance that will increase rather than reduce emissions while imposing substantial costs on California consumers Noting that vehicles generated approximately half of all smog forming pollutants in California the California Air Resources Board CARB in 1990 adopted a requirement that car companies include ZEVs in their California sales mix beginning in 1998 The requirement mandated that ZEVs should comprise 2 of all vehicle sales start E ing in 1998 rising to 10 of sales in 2003 and thereafter At the time of CARB s decision it was widely expected that ZEVs would run on battery power although other possible zero emissions systems were not explicitly ruled out Despite large scale research and development R D funded by government and private sources the technological challenges to the deployment of batteries with sufficient performance to make electric vehicles reasonable substitutes for conventionally powered cars proved to be insurmountable Recognizing that workable zeroemission propulsion systems would not be available in 1998 CARB in 1996 delayed implementation of its ZEV mandate until 2003 Major automakers agreed to continue R D activities and to maintain limited distribution of prototype ZEV vehicles within California In 1998 CARB reduced the mandate for true ZEVs to 4 by adopting provisions that allowed manufacturers to use extremely clean advanced technology vehicles referred WINTER 2001 ISSUE 142 RESOURCES 7 RESOURCES FOR THE FUTURE ans are likely to purchase fewer new cars and to continue drivto as partial ZEVs to meet up to 6 of the overall 10 ing their old cars longer requirement If the cost of producing electric cars as estimated by CARB Over the last several years R D efforts have made signifiis spread across the entire new car sales base in California precant progress in reducing emissions from conventional vehicles vious experience with the consumer response to higher new car through the design and initial production of fuel efficient hybrid prices suggests that total new car purchases will fall by 2 3 vehicles and the development of fuel cell technologies These with an offsetting increase in the retention of older cars in the technologies could eventually provide viable ZEVs after cost fleet While the consumer response is small in terms of numreductions and the development of a hydrogen refueling infrabers of vehicles the emissions impacts will be substantial structure However although the car companies have followed because old cars have much higher emission rates than new ones through on their commitments to CARB battery technology Yet a recent CARB staff analysis which suggests that the ZEV breakthroughs remained elusive For example at a recent enviprogram will very modestly reduce emissions from the vehicle ronmental technology seminar Toyota Senior Vice President fleet simply ignores this consumer response and its emissions Jim Wilson said that despite years of research an electric vehiimplications Once this response is properly taken into account cle would still cost 20 000 more to build than a comparable CARB s own emissions models suggest that gasoline powered car CARB staff estithe emissions increase resulting from more mates a cost premium of between 8 000 intensive use of older cars will overwhelm and 20 000 for production of an electric The larger message the expected emissions reductions from ZEV with performance characteristics infethat the pursuit of new ZEVs rior to those of a conventional vehicle Let s look at the numbers CARB s own Notwithstanding the continuing shortenvironmentally perfect comings of ZEV technology CARB voted technology can be environ emissions model projects that in 2010 cars and light trucks manufactured before unanimously in September 2000 to reafmentally counterproductive model year 2003 will emit about 20 times firm the ZEV mandate Unless current once the consumer as much reactive organic gases ROG and rules are revised between 4 10 of all cars minivans pickups and sport utility response is considered 10 times as much nitrogen oxides NOx vehicles sold by the major car companies should be remembered as as the fleet of 2003 and newer vehicles to CARB s most optimistic scein California starting in model year 2003 regulators consider future According must run on battery power At first glance nario by 2010 the ZEV program could cut measures to clear the air total emissions of ROG and NOx from cars CARB s decision would appear to represent a victory for the environment over the manufactured after model year 2002 by manufacturers and dealers of conventional roughly 10 However the new car fleet cars and trucks A closer look however reveals a dirty little is already very clean so this is only a small reduction in tons of secret the mandate will make the air in California dirtier rather pollution The emissions from older cars that would be driven than cleaner for the foreseeable future more because of the program will swamp this environmental benefit Indeed I estimate that the extra emissions from older Why the ZEV Program Will Increase Emissions cars in 2010 will be 3 to 15 times CARB s estimated emissions The electric car requirement will slightly reduce emissions from reduction from the new car fleet If